Bitcoin rise wedge warning breaks below 111000 USD, which will determine the next major trend!

Bitcoin (BTC) has formed a rising wedge for nearly a year, pulling back from a peak of $121,000, currently clinging tightly to the "bottom line" of $111,000. A decisive breakout could trigger a fall towards $100,000, while successfully holding this level may propel it for one last push towards $121,000 and beyond.

Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has been trading within a clear rising wedge (higher highs and higher lows, converging towards the top).

In July, Bitcoin stalled at the resistance level of 121,000 USD, subsequently retracing to test the downward trend line and the annual value area high (VAH), which is around 111,000 USD—this point now holds extraordinary significance.

Trading Volume Overview

If the price falls below $111,000, then the high trading volume nodes between $100,000 and $95,000 will become strong support.

There is a relative liquidity vacuum between $115,000 and $120,000 above the current price, indicating that a breakthrough to higher levels could quickly accelerate towards new highs.

Momentum and Squeeze Indicators

The TTM squeeze histogram shows that the momentum bars are continuously decreasing, indicating that the rebound has exhausted.

The daily random indicator has fallen from the overbought zone, and if the wedge support fails, it increases the risk of a deeper pullback.

Key Levels Worth Noting

(Source: Trading View)

"Sand Line": 111,000 USD

Stay here, the wedge remains intact, and the new round of rise will reach $114,865, $117,596, and may retest $121,000.

Break below confirms the wedge breakout, opening the door for a deeper pullback.

First major support level: $104,825

The wedge midpoint converges with the previous congestion area; it may attract dip buyers.

Support line: $100,990–$97,596

The trading volume nodes from the beginning of the year to now; a typical "normal" pullback will pause here.

Final reserve price: 94,785 USD

Breaking this level may reach the 2025 range low, potentially leading to a shift in the medium-term bearish trend.

Future Outlook

Bearish scenario: A daily closing price below $111,000 could trigger stop-losses entering the $100,000 region, potentially falling to the $95,000 range before finding strong buying interest.

Bullish scenario: A sustained support level at $111,000, along with rising volume, will indicate the final compression towards the wedge apex - the target is to break above $121,000 and may extend to above $130,000.

Traders should monitor wedge trend lines, volume distribution clusters, and momentum oscillators to obtain the clearest signals for Bitcoin's next movement.