Can XRP surge to 30 dollars? Analysts reveal bull run cycle targets and potential risks.

XRP has performed remarkably in this bull run, with a cumulative increase of over 550% since last November, recently breaking through the $3 barrier. With technical breakouts and optimistic sentiment surrounding ETFs, some analysts have even called for a target price of $30 to $34. However, in the context of on-chain data suggesting that the valuation may be too high, whether XRP can truly achieve this feat by mid-2026 remains a topic of debate.

Technical Analysis: Seven-Year Double Bottom Breakout, Targeting $34

(Source: Trading View)

Technical analyst Gert van Lagen pointed out that XRP has broken through the long-term neckline at $1.80, completing a seven-year double bottom formation.

Neckline backtest: The successful retest after the breakout held the support, indicating strong bullish confidence.

Fibonacci extension: calculated with a 2.00 times extension, the target price is set at $34, with a time window estimated around mid-2026.

This pattern is similar to the trend from 2014 to 2017, when XRP directly entered a parabolic rise from years of consolidation, with an increase of over 100,000%.

Historical pump and current driving factors

The main pump in the past two rounds:

2020–2021: XRP pumped over 1,625%, benefiting from low interest rates and ample market liquidity.

2022–2025: Cumulative pump of over 1,072%, mainly driven by the progress of the Ripple lawsuit, regulatory clarity, exchange relistings, and ETF expectations.

Analysts expect that if the spot XRP ETF is approved in 2025 (with a 95% chance according to the market), the price is likely to surge to $27 first, and then move towards Van Lagen's target of $34.

On-chain data: Concerns over overvaluation

(Source: DefiLlama)

According to DefiLlama data, the market capitalization of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is approximately $190 billion, but the total value locked (TVL) is only $85 million, resulting in a market cap to TVL ratio of up to 2,200 times.

In comparison, Ethereum's market cap/TVL ratio is only about 5.6, while XRP's market cap is approaching 40% of ETH.

This gap implies that XRP may be at risk of being overvalued relative to on-chain actual activity.

Profit-taking pressure: 95% of supply is in profit status

Glassnode data shows that currently over 95% of the XRP supply is in profit. Historically, when the profit ratio reaches this level, it is often accompanied by large-scale profit-taking and price corrections:

2020–2021: After reaching that threshold, XRP experienced a significant pullback.

2022–2025: A short-term adjustment is expected under the same high profit ratio.

This means that, even if the long-term trend is bullish, there may be selling pressure in the short term.

Comprehensive Outlook: 30 dollars is not a dream, but the journey is winding

Bullish factors:

Seven-year double bottom breakout, technical pattern supports long-term pump.

The probability of ETF approval is high, which may lead to an influx of institutional funds.

The improvement in the Ripple lawsuit and regulatory environment has restored market confidence.

Risk Factors:

The market cap/TVL ratio is too high, and the growth of on-chain applications needs to keep pace with valuations.

High profit margins may trigger short-term profit-taking.

Global macroeconomic conditions and changes in interest rate policies may affect capital inflows.

Conclusion

XRP hitting 30 dollars or even 34 dollars in this bull run cycle is not impossible, but it requires the continuation of technical patterns, support from ETF funds, and the synchronized growth of the on-chain ecosystem. In the short term, investors should be cautious of the pullback risks brought by high profit ratios and closely monitor the progress of ETFs and changes in on-chain data.