Bitcoin weekly rise of 6.84% as global tariff policy games trigger market turbulence

Main Text

This week, the opening price of Bitcoin was $78,370.15, and the closing price was $84,733.07, with a weekly increase of 6.84% and a volatility of 14.89%. Trading volume has significantly increased. Since late January, the price of Bitcoin has effectively broken through the upper edge of the downward channel for the first time, approaching the 200-day moving average.

The biggest variable in the global macro-financial field remains the intense changes in tariff policies. This dramatic situation has left the whole world astonished, with China's countermeasures being particularly noteworthy.

In this "confrontation game", the party that concedes first is likely to fail. Changes in tariff policies globally have triggered various reactions from politics, business, and capital markets, whether obvious or covert.

The final result is a massive outflow of funds from the US market, with the US stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market all suffering unprecedented hits at the same time.

Faced with significant financial risks, the U.S. government has chosen to make concessions, either partially postponing the implementation of new tariff policies, reducing tariff intensity, and expanding the list of exempted goods, while also releasing goodwill towards major competitors in the realm of public opinion. Thus, the adjustment of tariff policies has entered the second phase, where all parties will begin negotiations and compromises.

The risk asset market, which had sharply declined due to the impact of the first phase of policies, is now experiencing a rebound. Although the most severe effects of the tariff policies may have passed, subsequent uncertainties will still dominate various markets. The tariff issues will not be easily resolved and may trigger a new crisis. Key points to watch in the future include whether the tariff conflict will escalate further, whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in a timely manner, and whether the U.S. economy will fall into recession.

Policies, Macroeconomic Finance and Economic Data

Due to the inability of most countries to counter the new tariff policy, the countermeasures of China and the European Union have become the main force in resisting American unilateralism, with China's responses being particularly prominent.

After multiple rounds of confrontation, the United States has raised tariffs on China to 145%, while China's retaliatory tariffs on the United States have reached 125%. This has essentially severed the possibility of normal trade exchanges, leading China to subsequently announce that it will no longer respond to any potential further tariff increases by the United States.

On April 10, the United States suspended new tariff policies for most countries (excluding China), retaining a "benchmark tariff" of 10% and beginning negotiations. As a result of this news, the U.S. stock market surged significantly, with the Nasdaq index recording its second largest single-day gain in history.

China's seemingly passive actions have actually put tremendous pressure on the United States. On the 12th, the United States announced a waiver on 145% tariffs on certain Chinese goods, including smartphones, tablets, laptops, semiconductors, integrated circuits, flash memory, and display modules.

It is not just China's countermeasures that are pushing the U.S. government into the "second phase", but also the strong reactions from the political, business, and financial sectors in the United States.

On Monday, April 7, the three major U.S. stock indices fell sharply, hitting a correction low and entering or nearing a technical bear market. The next day, the VIX fear index reached a high of 52.33, marking the third peak since the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis and the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic crisis.

At the same time, the short-term government bond yield fell to 3.8310% on Thursday, while the long-term government bond yield saw a significant rebound on Friday, closing at a high of 4.4950%.

After a large-scale sell-off in the US stock market, funds in US Treasuries also joined the selling ranks. Additionally, with capital flowing from the US to Europe and other regions, the US Dollar Index also experienced a significant decline.

The "triple killing" in the stock market, bond market, and foreign exchange market has forced the U.S. government to release signals of easing tariff policies and announce a list of exempted goods. At the same time, the Federal Reserve has also signaled a "dovish" stance. Boston Fed President Collins stated in an interview on Friday that the Federal Reserve is "absolutely ready" to use various tools to stabilize the financial market when necessary.

The easing of tariff policies and the Federal Reserve's verbal market support have temporarily alleviated the U.S. financial markets. On Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes ended a turbulent week with gains.

Analysis suggests that the adjustment of tariff policies has entered the second phase, and the market's panic sentiment has somewhat eased, gradually starting to explore the bottom. However, based on the uncertainty of the U.S. government and the immense risks of economic recession and inflation (the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index released this week continues to fall to 50.8), the likelihood of achieving a V-shaped reversal is low.

selling pressure and sell-off

This week, on-chain selling pressure has weakened, slightly halting three consecutive weeks of panic selling. The total on-chain selling volume for the week was 188,816.61 coins, of which short-term holders accounted for 178,263.27 coins and long-term holders for 10,553.34 coins. On the 7th and 9th, the short-term holder group again incurred significant losses amid global market panic.

Currently, long-term holders are still playing the role of stabilizers, increasing their holdings by nearly 60,000 coins this week, indicating that market liquidity remains quite scarce. As of the weekend, the overall short-term holders group is still at a 10% floating loss level, suggesting that the market is still under tremendous pressure.

Cycle Indicator

According to the data, the BTC cycle indicator is 0.125, and the market is in an upward retracement period.