Introduction: Replication Frenzy, False Innovation

Since the second half of 2024, the crypto market has come alive again, especially within Layer2 ecosystems. It gives rise to a wave of “replica projects.” From mimicking DEGEN’s airdrop mechanism to the sudden emergence of meme coins like Runes, TURBO, and SATS on Base, and the frequent cloning of Blast’s UI and LayerZero’s bridge model, these projects often share two core traits:

• Simple technical execution, with high code reuse across chains;
• Community-driven growth, relying on viral marketing and strong narrative spins to kickstart adoption.

This raises a fundamental question: In an industry that prizes “innovation,” why has “replication” instead become a powerful catalyst for breakout success?

This article explores whether the “Replica Economy” truly represents a new paradigm for the bull market and analyzes it across multiple dimensions: on-chain data, community structure, and distribution mechanisms.

From “Replication” to “Recreation”: What is the “Replica Economy”?

Definition: What Exactly are “Replica Projects”?

A “replica project” isn’t just a traditional fork, nor is it merely a copy of UI or code. Instead, it’s a new form of narrative economy that rapidly appropriates successful models and community playbooks, such as:

• The DEGEN model is being copied into PIZZA, WIF, and others;
• The “Bitcoin inscriptions + L2” model from SATS being quickly cloned by L3 projects;
• Friend.tech’s token bonding + social interaction model is frequently replicated across social chains like Farcaster.

Replication doesn’t necessarily mean low quality. It can also represent a more efficient form of narrative rebuilding.

Source: Degen

The Rise of the “Replica Economy”

• Lower L2 Costs: Networks like Arbitrum, Base, Blast, and zkSync have significantly reduced on-chain transaction costs, making trial-and-error extremely cheap.
• Meme Culture Boom: Low barriers to entry and viral potential have energised a new wave of creator economies.
• Standardised Contracts: ERC-20, ERC-404, and other token standards have fueled the explosion of “one-click launch” platforms like Pump.fun and mint.fun.
• Airdrop Economy Saturation: “No initial allocations, airdrop the rich” models have become widely accepted and easily imitated.

Data Perspective: How Replica Projects Perform On-Chain

We collected data from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 on several typical replica projects:

Data compiled by the author

FDV vs. Initial TVL: A Triumph of Zero-Cost Launches or a Short-Term Speculative Bubble?

Replica projects typically embody “light assets, heavy emotions.” Most of them, without VC backing, pre-mines, or team reserves, rely purely on meme narratives and viral spread to rapidly inflate their Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV). \
However, judging a project solely by its static FDV/TVL ratio at a snapshot in time risks overlooking dynamic capital flows and lifecycle volatility.

Taking TURBO on Base as an example, we tracked its FDV and TVL trends over the first 30 days post-launch and calculated the dynamic FDV/TVL ratio:

Chart: TURBO FDV/TVL Trend (30 Days Post-Launch)

Key Events:

• 2024.03.02: TURBO launches on Base; FDV surges to ~$50M, TVL sits around $100K, FDV/TVL surpasses 500;
• 2024.03.05: Coinbase Wallet tweets support for TURBO; FDV spikes again to ~$70M, but TVL growth remains modest;
• 2024.03.12: Community proposes TURBO DAO; TVL slightly rises, FDV stabilizes;
• From 2024.03.20 onward: FDV begins to decline steadily, while TVL remains stagnant, and the FDV/TVL ratio peaks above 600, exposing concentrated risk.

This trend suggests that TURBO’s FDV in the early stages was more a result of speculative expectation buildup than a reflection of actual capital or project value. The FDV/TVL ratio peaked at over 600. It far exceeds the typical range of 10-30 seen in traditional DeFi projects, and even surpasses the 100x seen in typical meme coins.

Analysis Highlights:

• Meme narratives often drive FDV surges via external triggers (CEX tweets, KOL endorsements), not organic TVL growth.
• TVL stagnation reflects the lack of real capital commitment.
• Sharp, “spiky” FDV/TVL curves signal frothy price bubbles, concentrating risk on late-stage buyers.

Thus, when assessing replica meme projects, it’s crucial to remain vigilant to the structural risks inherent in “high FDV / low TVL” dynamics.

User Structure Analysis: Airdrop Hunters vs. Genuine Communities

Analyzing the on-chain interaction data of several replica projects (TURBO, DEGEN, PAC, L3ns) from Q4 2024 to Q1 2025 reveals a highly fragmented user structure:

Most users are driven by short-term incentives rather than loyalty or product belief.

Source: Turbo

Key Findings:

• About 65% of addresses interact with multiple replica projects (e.g., participating in TURBO, DEGEN, and PAC simultaneously). These “airdrop hunters” display intensive but short-lived activity, with little to no intention of holding tokens long-term. Their focus is purely on capturing early-stage gains or airdrops.
• Around 25% are meme narrative participants. They are interested in meme trading rather than airdrops, but they also show low loyalty to specific projects.
• Less than 10% demonstrate clear community stickiness, such as the PAC DAO users who engage in governance votes on Snapshot, organise activities on Farcaster, and hold tokens longer-term.

This shows that the so-called “communities” behind most replica projects are more accurately described as temporary alliances of profit-seekers, not durable ecosystems built on product alignment or cultural identity.

Data Sources:

• Address interaction data was collected via Dune Analytics, clustering addresses interacting with TURBO, DEGEN, PAC, and L3ns smart contracts.
• Governance participation and community behaviors were observed via Snapshot.org and Farcaster (Warpcast).
• Airdrop hunters were identified by cross-project interactions within 7–14 days as well as the number and frequency of address interactions.

Explosive Growth Mechanism: What Makes a “Fork” More Likely to Succeed?

By comparing successful and failed forked projects, we’ve distilled several key success factors:

Narrative First: Not About Copying Code, But About “Copying Emotions”

• TURBO: Used AI-generated dog images with the narrative of “AI investors vs. retail gamblers,” triggering a self-deprecating emotional resonance: “AI is better at trading than humans.”
• SATS: Rode the Bitcoin inscription wave, leveraging the ongoing BTC bull market momentum and naturally binding its narrative to the Bitcoin ecosystem.
• PAC: Combined Blast’s Points incentive, Doge meme culture, and on-chain gambling features, creating a triple-layered narrative driver.

Example: PAC

PAC’s smart contract includes simple gambling logic. It allows users to bet on “up or down” games and loot box openings. The core contract uses pseudo-random functions for draws. As of April 2024, PAC’s gambling module had not adopted standard randomness solutions like Chainlink VRF. It carried potential manipulation risks.

On-chain data shows PAC’s trading behavior on Blast exhibited clear gambling characteristics:

• High-frequency, low-value interactions: 70% of transactions were under $10, with daily contract calls for gambling functions exceeding 15 times per address.
• Significant overlap of high-frequency users, with some addresses also active in other gambling-related contracts (e.g., Rollbit clones). Contract functions such as placeBet() and openBox() account for over 85% of overall interactions, indicating that non-transactional interactions dominate.

This “Gamified Meme” model is no longer just about token cloning. It’s a fusion of emotion, narrative, and gambling mechanics, where narrative far outweighs the product itself.
In short: Narrative > Tech Innovation is the real winning formula for today’s fork projects.

Launch Mechanism: Airdrop Economics to Rebuild “Early Conspirators”

• Interaction = Airdrop: creating strong incentives for users to spread the word actively.
• Speed is king: website, contract deployment, and airdrop distribution all completed within a single day.
• Transparent incentives: users clearly understand that “farming interactions” is worthwhile.

Community Playbook: Not Long-Term Building, But Short-Term Collective Frenzy

Instead of building “core communities” like traditional DeFi projects, these forked projects focus on event-driven virality and emotional engagement:

• Turbo: Founder released AI images + contract within 24 hours.
• PAC: Community flooded Twitter with meme stickers via Telegram.
• WIF, DOG, PIZZA, etc.: Mimicked Dogecoin’s path, using “group humor” to fuel viral growth.

Distribution Mechanism: X Platform + Telegram Group as Fork Amplifiers

How Fork Projects Spread: From “Founders’ Inner Circles” to Full-Blown Crypto KOL Frenzies

Most successful forks exhibit a tiered diffusion path:

1. Inner Circle Launch: Founders post first in private Telegram groups or alt X (Twitter) accounts (within a 30–60 minute window).
2. Edge Diffusion: Early airdrop hunters, bots, and sniping scripts monitor new contract deployments and Mempool broadcasts.
3. Mid-Tier KOL Relay: Twitter accounts with 3k–30k followers make the first buys and post screenshots.
4. Mainstream Explosion: Top KOLs, airdrop hunters, and memecoin whales pick it up and amplify.
5. Community Resonance: Telegram/Discord groups create dedicated “memes + alpha” channels for meme-driven viral spread.

Example: PAC’s tweet map shows that within just 48 hours, the topic went from an “anonymous small account” through 7 mid-tier players before being exploded by big names like @paul_eth and @0xSisyphus.

“X + Telegram” Is the Ultimate Combo: Maximum Reach + Emotional Intensity

• X (Twitter) acts as the topic incubator and narrative wrapper.
• Telegram serves as the real-time feedback loop and emotional battlefield.
• Successful forks often maintain a highly active “meme group” of 1k–4k members.
• In Telegram, the communication style is: low text, high meme density, strong emotional spikes.

Insight: In meme groups, the ratio of text to meme images is over 1:3, showing users prefer irrational, follow-the-hype interactions — the core engine behind fork virality.

“A Picture Says More Than a Thousand Words”: AI-Generated Visual Storytelling as Catalyst

• TURBO: Used ChatGPT for text, Midjourney for visuals, delivering a full “story + image” within 24 hours.
• PAC: Created familiar-yet-fresh $DOGE variant imagery to spark recognition + curiosity.
• Images themselves became the transmission vector: no need for users to understand code or tokenomics — just one glance triggers FOMO.

Post-Mortem on Failed Forks: Why 99% Fade Into Oblivion?

Although the fork boom produces many viral projects, the success rate remains under 10%. After sampling 100 fork-style meme projects launched in Q1 2025, failure reasons clustered into clear patterns:

No Narrative, No Soul: Copying Form Without Copying Emotional Triggers

• Many failures simply cloned the UI and mechanisms without answering: “Why does this deserve to exist?”
• No original meme content, no retweet momentum, hollow narratives.
• Example: multiple dog-themed projects cloning $WIF, but only changing the name without any hook or community spirit.

Case Study: $DOGTER — a “Doge + Doctor” concept fork.

Before launch, it never gained traction and stagnated around $800K, never taking off.

Source: DOGTER-type meme coins

Launching Too Slowly Equals Death: Timing Beats Logic

• Successful projects complete the entire launch cycle (contract + website + community) within 1 hour.
• Failed projects tried to “perfect” everything, but overthought it. It gets front-run overnight.

Example: A team planned a detailed Turbo fork with polished visuals and tokenomics, but after a week’s delay, five similar projects launched first. It drains all attention.

Poor Airdrop Design: No “Farmability” = No Engagement = No Virality

• If airdrop incentives are too vague (“we’ll distribute later, unclear how”), users won’t bother interacting.
• No interactive tasks, no postable UI => no organic spread.
• Many failed projects barely crossed 200 interactions post-launch and ended up abandoned or rugged.

Ecosystem Perspectives: Differences in the “Replication Craze” Across Base, Blast, and zkSync

Base: The Birthplace of Memes, Powered by the Coinbase Ecosystem

• Base is the quintessential “replication incubator”:
  • Extremely low transaction fees (single swap < $0.02)
  • Strong community attributes (Farcaster users + Degen influencers)
  • Open attitude towards meme projects and active participation in events like Onchain Summer
• Iconic tokens like $DEGEN, $TURBO, $WIF, and $PIZZA all originated from Base;
• Base = A fusion of emotional drivers + meme culture + fast launch environment.

Blast: A New Replication Ground Driven by High Yields and Lock-in Economics

• Blast’s staking reward system for ETH and USDB attracted a massive influx of airdrop hunters.
• Compared to Base, Blast has higher “capital activity” but relies less on community virality, instead leveraging protocol-level “point farming mechanisms”.
• Many replication projects (like PAC) chose to launch on Blast to attract “point farmers” and “airdrop hunters”.

Key features:

• Users are more rational.
• Projects prioritize initial capital inflows (TVL) over meme virality.
• Better suited for replicating financial tools rather than meme coins.

zkSync: Strong Tech Stack, But Difficult Cold Start; Hard for Forked Projects to Gain Momentum

• zkSync’s high TPS and robust security model theoretically make it ideal for building;
• However, its user base leans heavily toward “technical” and “developer” profiles, which dampens meme-driven FOMO effects.
• A few attempts have been made to replicate Lens and Worldcoin social modules, but virality has been extremely limited.
• It lacks the emotional amplification of Base and the capital-driven momentum of Blast.

Interim Summary:

1. In terms of replication success, “visual + emotional resonance” is more crucial than logical rigour — nonlinear explosions outperform calculated launches;
2. Common traits of failed projects: weak narratives, slow momentum, and vague mechanisms.
3. The inherent differences across L2 ecosystems dictate the “replication types” that are suitable for different on-chain projects.

Future Outlook: Will “Replica Economy” Become a Bull Market Main Theme?

Replica Economy as a Reflection of Crypto Cycles

Historically, every bull market has seen a surge in “low innovation + high virality” phenomena:

• 2017 ICO Boom: Mass replication of Ethereum ERC-20 contracts with minor tweaks (renamed tokens, new logos);
• 2020 DeFi Summer: Projects like YAM, SUSHI, and BASED rose by forking Yearn/Synthetix;
• 2021 NFT Bull Run: CryptoPunks and Bored Apes inspired replicas like Loot, Pudgy Penguins, and Milady Maker;
• 2023–2024 Meme Craze: From DOGE → SHIBA → PEPE → WIF → PIZZA, narratives became lighter, and virality became extreme.

Insight: Replication has never disappeared. Each bull cycle simply finds new “vehicles” and “narrative shells” for it.

Thus, the replication economy is not an anomaly of the bull market. It is a fundamental feature. With L2s maturing and Launchpad tools proliferating, its explosiveness and accessibility are only accelerating.

From “Replica Economy” to “Template Economy”

Replication projects are increasingly evolving into a “template-driven” economy, backed by middleware platforms offering turnkey solutions:

• mint.fun, pump.fun: One-click meme coin creation, integrating automatic contract deployment, LP pool setup, and website.
• thirdweb, mirror, Zora: No-code platforms for launching NFTs and tokenomics.
• chainjet, guild.xyz, noox.xyz: Build airdrops, engagement quests, and task systems.

This means future “creators” won’t need code or teams — just a good topic to launch a replication project.

Prediction: We may witness the rise of Crypto-native Creator Economy 2.0, driven by templates rather than code.

Meme ≠ Worthless, Replication ≠ Uncreative

Replication should not simply be dismissed as “copycatting” — it is a product experiment based on extreme cost control + narrative reframing.

Examples:

• TURBO was launched using a ChatGPT-assisted concept, representing “human-AI co-creation.”
• PAC combined Blast incentives, dog culture, and gambling elements — a true cultural remix.
• PIZZA and WEN on Base started as copies but evolved into unique communities through innovative governance models.

Replication is merely the beginning. The full lifecycle is: imitation → virality → reverse influence → reinvention.

Risk Warning: Regulatory Gaps, Onchain Security, and Liquidity Traps

Despite the booming replication economy, the underlying risks should not be underestimated.

Regulatory Risks: Security-Like Structures and Misleading Promotions

• Most replication projects don’t conduct public fundraising or presales, but their market behavior often displays security-like characteristics.
• The U.S. SEC has repeatedly warned of investor misinformation risks tied to meme coins.
• Some replication projects manipulate early price action while using “unofficial tones” to create misleading hype, which poses major compliance risks. Especially when such projects are listed on major exchanges and liquidity increases, accountability and enforcement may intensify.

In March 2024, the SEC fined and delisted the meme coin project DogeMoon for:

• Misleading social media promotions (exaggerated upside claims, faked community support);
• Non-disclosure of affiliated insiders (project operators posing as independent community members);
• Unregistered securities issuance.

According to historical SEC and CFTC enforcement data, common replication risks include:

• High incidence of misleading promotions (Telegram, Twitter, etc.);
• Lack of transparency regarding token allocation and fund usage;
• Celebrity endorsements and brand counterfeiting to fabricate narratives;
• Opaque team identities and suspicious contract permissions.

Frequent Smart Contract Vulnerabilities: High-Risk Unaudited Code

Replication projects often fork and tweak existing code with minimal auditing, leading to rampant vulnerabilities:

• Unremoved mint permissions: Some contracts retain minting functions, allowing arbitrary inflation (rug risk);
• Poor transfer restriction settings: Some addresses face blacklist risks;
• Router path tampering: Swap contracts embed malicious taxes or slippage traps.

According to CertiK’s Q1 2024 Security Report, among the meme projects confirmed as rug pulls in Q1 2024:

• Over 84% of rug-pulled meme projects lacked any form of smart contract audit;
• 72% were launched via platforms like pump.fun or Base meme launchers, with extremely high code reuse;
• Common issues: hardcoded taxes, fake liquidity locks, hidden backdoors for fund extraction.

Percentage of Unaudited Contracts in Rug Pull Projects (Source: CertiK Q1 2024 Report)

Liquidity Traps and Early FOMO Misguidance

• Many replication projects boast “100% self-built LPs,” giving an illusion of fairness — but in reality, project teams retain LP tokens, allowing them to rug liquidity at will;
• A single whale withdrawal can crash FDV by over 90%;
• Communities often mistakenly equate “zero tax + fully onchain” with transparency, while overlooking critical contract control risks.

Furthermore, many projects deliberately fuel “only up” narratives during early phases. This triggers massive FOMO among retail investors. Data shows about 70% of retail participants buy in only after price peaks. They become the primary bagholders during corrections.

Conclusion: Replication ≠ Inferiority — It’s a Victory of Web3 User Culture

Driven by cheaper L2 environments, standardized smart contract templates, and meme culture frenzy, the replica economy has emerged as one of the defining forces in the early bull market.

It may not represent “pure innovation,” but it maximizes information flow and trial-and-error efficiency in crypto. These replication projects:

• Help define the limits of virality-driven models;
• Drive deep fusion between community-building and financial narratives;
• Ultimately clarify what crypto-native users actually desire.

The next true breakout star may once again emerge from replication, but it will inevitably chart its own path.

The future won’t be invented. It will be replicated, remixed, and redistributed.