Trump's $3.4 trillion fiscal bill passed by the House, significantly reducing taxes and spending, reversing Biden's policies.

Key Points:

• House Vote: On Thursday, the U.S. House of Representatives narrowly passed a fiscal budget proposal totaling up to $3.4 trillion, with a vote of 218 to 214.
• Main Content: The bill includes large-scale tax cuts, reductions in social security program spending (such as Medicaid), and reverses several policies promoted by the Biden administration aimed at fostering a clean energy economy.
• Signing Soon: President Trump plans to hold a ceremony to sign the bill at the White House on Friday at 4 PM, completing the legislative process ahead of his set deadline of July 4.
• Intense Struggle: The process of passing the bill was difficult, and House leaders had to extend the procedural voting time by several hours to persuade a few stubborn Republican members to support it. Vice President JD Vance also cast the crucial tie-breaking vote in the Senate earlier this week.

How did Trump push the bill through? According to Bloomberg, President Trump has fully utilized his influence over the Republican Party to overcome resistance through threats to challenge opponents in the primaries, lobbying meetings at the White House, and social activities on the golf course. The resistance mainly comes from hardline conservatives concerned that the bill will exacerbate the debt problem, as well as moderate Republicans in swing states worried about the scale of Medicaid cuts. The opposition from former ally Elon Musk did not have a significant impact on the outcome. Ultimately, only two Republican lawmakers, Thomas Massie from Kentucky and Brian Fitzpatrick from Pennsylvania, voted against the bill along with the Democrats.

How do Republicans evaluate?

• House Republican Leader Steve Scalise: Attributes the breaking of the deadlock to Trump, stating that he clearly communicated to opponents the message "the negotiations are over, a vote must happen."
• Chairman of the House Fundraising Committee Jason Smith: Praised the populist appeal of the bill, calling it legislation that "represents ordinary people who have no lobbyists in Washington." He emphasized that the bill aims to "restore the lost sanity, cut waste, and rein in reckless spending," requiring able-bodied individuals to work and stopping working families from footing the bill for Washington's bad decisions.

How do Democrats criticize? Democrats strongly oppose the bill, claiming it finances tax cuts for the wealthy at the expense of depriving millions of poor people who rely on Medicaid of their medical coverage. They depict it as a "reverse Robin Hood" plan - robbing the poor to give to the rich.

• House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries: Gave a record-breaking marathon speech of over 8 hours before the bill passed. He warned, "This bill will end the Medicaid program as we know it," "rural hospitals will close, nursing homes will close," and "provide tax breaks for the wealthy, well-connected, and privileged." (Cryptocurrency users' concern: A dramatic policy shift could trigger market volatility)

Detailed Explanation of Key Contents of the Bill (Fiscal Policy and Potential Impact on Cryptocurrency):

1. Massive Tax Cuts (Core):
   • Permanently extend the provisions for individuals and pass-through businesses in the 2017 Trump tax cut bill (originally set to expire at the end of 2025).
   • Includes populist-friendly tax cuts: a permanent increase in the child tax credit; a four-year temporary tax relief for seniors, tip income, and overtime pay (fulfilling Trump's campaign promise).
   • Senate Republicans are pushing to make a series of corporate tax incentives permanent (capitalization of interest expenses, R&D expenditures, accelerated depreciation for specific assets such as machinery and factories), significantly increasing the cost of the bill.
2. Significant reduction in social security spending:
   • Medicaid (Medicaid): According to estimates from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), spending will be cut by nearly $1 trillion over the next decade. Measures include: limiting federal matching funds for Medicaid to states; implementing new work requirements for beneficiaries without children under 14 and who are able-bodied; and imposing new cost-sharing requirements on beneficiaries who obtain insurance through the Affordable Care Act.
   • Other Projects: Reduce federal food stamp (SNAP) and student loan expenditures.
3. Reversal of Clean Energy Policies:
   • Gradually eliminate most of the clean energy tax incentives established during the Biden administration.
   • Eliminate the popular $7,500 electric vehicle consumer tax credit for vehicles purchased after September 30.
4. Other Terms:
   • Debt Ceiling: The bill includes an increase of $5 trillion in the debt ceiling, eliminating the catastrophic debt default risk that the Treasury warned could occur in mid-August. (Cryptocurrency users' concern: The debt ceiling resolves short-term market benefits, but long-term deficit worries intensify)
   • Immigration and National Defense: Provide new resources for Trump's crackdown on illegal immigration and military spending (including his "Iron Dome" missile defense program).
   • State and Local Tax Deduction (SALT): Republican lawmakers from high-tax states like New York, New Jersey, and California are pushing for a temporary increase in the SALT deduction cap to $40,000 (which will revert to the current $10,000 cap after five years).

Market Reaction and Financial Impact Analysis (Cryptocurrency Investors' Focus):

• Poll: A survey by the Pew Research Center last month showed that 49% of Americans oppose the bill, only 29% support it, and 21% are uncertain. The Democrats are ahead in the early stages of the public opinion battle.
• Concerns about the deficit: The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicts that this bill will increase the U.S. fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion over the next ten years.
• Market Impact: Noted bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach warned last month that the federal debt burden has become "unsustainable," and concerns have led to a roughly 9% decline in the dollar against major currencies this year. While the bill addresses short-term default risks, the massive deficit may continue to pressure the dollar.

Political Outlook: The fierce partisan propaganda battle surrounding the bill is expected to escalate in the coming months. Democrats hope that voter resentment will help them regain power in next year's midterm elections. Trump and his Republican allies are counting on the $4.5 trillion tax cut to boost economic growth. The bill is designed to delay many spending cuts while bringing forward tax cuts with populist appeal.