Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC flashes a terrifying "Three Black Crows" pattern, falling below 115,000 USD may continue the downtrend?

Today (4th), during the Asian session, Bitcoin (BTC) slightly rebounded to above 114,000 USD, after the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data unexpectedly cooled down, causing it to lose the 115,000 level and dip to a low near the 112,000 support. Due to the deterioration of global risk sentiment, increased inflows to exchanges, and the breakdown of technical patterns, the overall market atmosphere has turned cautious. Technical indicators suggest a bearish short-term outlook, as Bitcoin has fallen below the symmetrical triangle pattern and formed a typical "three crows" pattern on the 4-hour chart, which usually signals a continued downtrend.

1. Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment Outlook

The latest US economic data shows that job growth in July was below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, far below the estimated 104,000. At the same time, core PCE inflation remains high at 2.8%, leading to an increase in market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September to 83%.

Legendary trader Arthur Hayes warned that escalating macroeconomic pressures and global trade tariff tensions could push Bitcoin down to the $100,000 level, representing a 12% decline from current prices. Although this view has not gained widespread acceptance, it reflects the increasingly cautious sentiment in the market.

The current key resistance level is near the 50-period simple moving average (SMA) at $116,852, with short-term resistance around $114,939 and $117,000. Support below is at $112,043 and $110,065. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has slightly rebounded from the oversold area but is still below 42, indicating weak bullish momentum. Daily trading volume has surged to over $57 billion, indicating increased market volatility, as traders attempt to interpret conflicting signals between macroeconomic conditions and on-chain data.

2. Whale Inflow, ETF Capital Outflow and Institutional Unease

(Source: CryptoQuant)

CryptoQuant data shows that on August 1, accounts holding over 1,000 BTC, referred to as "whales," contributed over 70% of exchange deposits, with more than 40,000 Bitcoins being sent to exchanges at low prices that day, marking the largest single-day inflow since mid-July. This behavior pushed the "exchange whale ratio" to historically high levels associated with short-term selling pressure.

At the same time, the Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States experienced an outflow of 812 million dollars that day, setting the second largest single-day outflow record in history. Analysts believe this is a profit-taking behavior by institutions amid increasing macro uncertainty and tightening liquidity.

3. Trump's $2 Billion Investment: Gamble or Game Changer?

Amid market turbulence, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announced an investment of $2 billion in Bitcoin and related assets. Its second-quarter financial report indicated that it also adopted a $300 million options strategy to increase its exposure to Bitcoin price movements, positioning the company among the top five publicly listed companies by holdings of coins globally.

Despite the company's net loss of $20 million in the second quarter and revenue of only $883,000, its total assets soared by 800% year-on-year to $3.1 billion due to an increase in Bitcoin assets. CEO Devin Nunes stated, "The liquidity brought by this strategy will support the company's expansion in streaming, artificial intelligence, and potential crypto ETF products." This move highlights Trump Media's ambition to integrate blockchain into its media and technology ecosystem.

At the same time, the Strategy report stated that due to unrealized gains from Bitcoin holdings, its net profit in the second quarter reached $10 billion. Meanwhile, Japan's Metaplanet is preparing to raise $3.7 billion with the aim of expanding its Bitcoin reserves by 12 times before 2027. These developments strengthen market confidence in Bitcoin as an "inflation-resistant asset" and a long-term institutional allocation target.

4. Expert Opinions: Predictions and Long-term Prospects

(Source: Trading View)

Despite increased short-term volatility, several analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term trend. Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences significant fluctuations around halving events. The next halving is expected to occur in April 2025, when the block reward will decrease from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, further tightening the new supply.

Cryptoeconomist Arslan Butt pointed out: "Each halving compresses supply, leading to a surge in prices. After the halving in 2020, Bitcoin rose nearly 600%. If conditions are similar, reaching $200,000 in 2026 is not impossible."

In addition, the fundamentals of the Bitcoin network remain strong, processing nearly 400,000 transactions daily, achieving a market capitalization of approximately $2.7 trillion, and with only about 1.4 million Bitcoins left to mine, the tight supply situation further reinforces the long-term bullish logic.

5. Outlook: Where Will Bitcoin Go Next?

The market is currently at a critical juncture, on one hand, there is the large-scale entry of Trump Media, and on the other hand, there is uncertainty in the macroeconomy and liquidity. The future direction of Bitcoin will gradually emerge under the influence of both.

In the short term, market volatility may persist, especially with active whale trading or continued ETF outflows. However, looking further ahead, as institutional adoption accelerates and the halving in 2025 approaches, the overall market environment remains relatively favorable.

Whether Bitcoin can hold the key support level of $112,000 will be crucial in determining the trend for the third and fourth quarters.

6. Bitcoin Technical Analysis

(Source: Action Forex)

Last week, as global risk sentiment worsened, the cryptocurrency market came under pressure, with Bitcoin falling from recent highs. Despite the magnitude of this adjustment, prices stabilized near a set of key technical support levels, providing an opportunity for bulls to regroup.

Currently, there are three key support levels converging: the May high of $112,013; the 55-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $112,331; and a trendline support level around $111,400. If the overall market sentiment does not deteriorate further, these support levels are expected to provide a solid foundation for Bitcoin to challenge the historical high of $123,231 again.

However, the subsequent upward momentum may be limited as momentum indicators are issuing warning signals. The daily MACD indicator shows a bearish divergence, suggesting that the upward momentum is weakening. There is strong resistance near the 100% extension level of $134,936 (projected from the rise from $49,008 to $109,571 and then the pullback to $74,373), which is expected to limit the price's upward movement. Currently, Bitcoin's upward trend is still continuing, but the upward space is expected to build a top below $135,000.

Conclusion:

Bitcoin flashed the "Three Black Crows" pattern and retreated below $115,000, indicating selling pressure in the short term. However, the complex interplay of macro factors, whale activity, and institutional capital flows creates uncertainty in the market outlook. Whether Bitcoin can hold the critical support level will be key to its future trend.