Is the storm over? This is the "birth door" for the XLM bulls.

Stellar (XLM) is going through a difficult period. Since July 19, the price has fallen by about 21.2%, a decline significantly stronger than the general market. Meanwhile, other altcoins have only decreased by over 4% and Bitcoin has remained almost stable at -2.9%. Clearly, Stellar is under considerably greater pressure compared to the rest of the market.

But is this all just bad news? Perhaps not quite.

The threshold of $0.42 – "The birth gate" for the bulls?

Despite facing strong selling pressure, the buyers have not yet given up. Currently, they are striving to hold the 0.42 USD level with the goal of turning this area into an important support for the price. If successful, XLM could pave the way straight up to the 0.515 USD area, a significant jump in the short term – of course, if "the stars align".

According to data from Coinalyze:

In summary, these signals support the possibility that XLM will attempt a rebound in the coming days.

Technical Chart: There are still many barriers

On the daily frame (1D), the overall trend of XLM is still leaning towards a fall. Although the price has recovered 12% from the bottom of 0.36 USD, in fact, this is just a retest of the zone 0.42–0.44 USD, which has now become a key resistance.

XLM Price Chart | Source: TradingView### Notable price zones

Technical Indicator

Potential trading strategy

Price scenario

Retail stands outside observation

According to data from CryptoQuant, the frequency of retail trading has been trending down recently. This is not necessarily a negative signal – on the contrary, the market "cooling down" may help reduce the risk of overheating, paving the way for a more sustainable growth phase in the future.

Source: CryptoQuantNotably, the spot CVD continues to maintain an upward trend, indicating that there is no strong selling pressure as seen during the severe sell-offs in December 2024. This reinforces the view that the current market is more stable, and buyers are quietly maintaining their positions.

Taylor