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The inflow of mainstream CEX alts has reached a multi-month high. Is the alt season approaching, or is it the rise of the "narrative season"?
On-chain data shows that the inflow of mainstream CEX alts has surged to a multi-month high, with trading activity skyrocketing. Despite the alt season index remaining low, there is significant disagreement in the market about whether a bull run for alts has started. This article analyzes the potential signals behind the massive inflow, the current contradictory market indicators, and the heated debate among analysts regarding the timing and pattern of an altcoin explosion.
Mainstream CEX altcoin inflow surges, trading activity rises The inflow of alts into the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange has reached its highest level in months, as revealed by the latest data from CryptoQuant.
CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn pointed out in his analysis that the activity of altcoins being deposited to exchanges has remained relatively stable over the past few months, with little change, coinciding with Bitcoin's price being in a sideways consolidation phase. However, recent deposit volumes have seen a significant increase, with the 7-day average trading volume surging to over 45,000 transactions, setting a new record since the end of 2024.
"This increase may indicate that more traders are ready to take action," Maartunn said. He added that the recent surge in altcoin activity follows Bitcoin's price recently breaking above $112,000, which has drawn more attention towards alts. However, he also warned that increased exchange inflow typically signals potential selling pressure rather than buying interest.
"When such deposits increase, it usually means that users are transferring funds to the exchange for trading rather than holding. This will ultimately lead to more buying (if depositing USDT/USDC) or selling (alts exchanged for stablecoins), depending on the market's next direction, but activity is clearly on the rise," he explained.
CryptoQuant data also shows that the number of addresses receiving alts and the total number of transactions have significantly increased, further confirming that trading activity in the altcoin market is becoming more active.
Alt season index is sluggish, analysts' opinions are polarized Despite the surge in altcoin activity, the current Altcoin Season Index is only 35, far from the official threshold for altseason. This index tracks the performance of the top 50 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins and wrapped tokens) relative to Bitcoin over a 90-day period. An altseason is only recognized when 75% of alts outperform Bitcoin within 90 days. The current metric has not reached the threshold, indicating that Bitcoin remains the dominant force in the market.
Some analysts are pessimistic or even deny the return of the alt season. A trader and analyst believes that the oversupply of alts, lack of liquidity, and the distraction of retail investors have led to the traditional alt season being over.
"The alt season is dead—and it’s not coming back. The past alt seasons meant 50 projects could rise 20-100 times. Now it’s 5 ‘cult coins’ skyrocketing, while 5000 other coins are bleeding silently," he commented. In his view, the market has entered the "narrative season", where only the hottest projects can stand out.
Optimists: Gearing up, an explosion is imminent? However, other analysts remain optimistic that alt season is just around the corner.
"Alt season is charging up. We have returned to the same area that gave birth to the 5x to 20x rallies of 2019 and 2020. Bitcoin dominance (BTC Dominance) is peaking. Alts are gearing up for a violent breakout. When this spring is released... the game begins," analyst Merlijn The Trader wrote.
Another analyst, Lucie, pointed out that although we have not yet entered alt season, the conditions are forming. She believes September could be a key breakout month. "Altcoin momentum: slowly building in the ETH, meme coin, and DeFi sectors. The accumulation phase may be underway, typical August pattern."
BeInCrypto also emphasizes that the altcoin market trends are highly similar to those of U.S. small-cap stocks, both of which are considered high-risk, high-reward investments. With increasing optimism among U.S. small businesses and continued growth potential, this suggests that alts may still have room to rise.
【Conclusion】 The surge in inflow of mainstream CEX altcoins is a clear signal of increased market activity, but its direction—whether it indicates a precursor to a sell-off or the prelude to a bull run—remains uncertain. The current market is in a contradictory state: on-chain data is hot, but the alt season index is cold, and analysts are in heated debate over future market paths. Whether the traditional "alt season" will re-emerge or not, a "narrative-driven" structural market may become the new normal. Investors need to closely monitor changes in Bitcoin's dominance, market liquidity, and key narrative developments, looking for opportunities to build positions in altcoins amid the divergence.