May Crypto Market Analysis Report

1. Macroeconomic Situation

In May 2025, the U.S. economy is at a critical turning point. Inflation continues to decline, the labor market remains robust, monetary policy enters a wait-and-see period, trade policy brings new uncertainties, and fiscal policy affects market expectations through debt operations. Against this backdrop, the crypto market demonstrates strong resilience, and the structure of global risk assets may undergo a new round of revaluation.

inflation trend

In April, the CPI year-on-year dropped to 2.3%, the lowest since February 2021, indicating that price pressures are continuing to ease. The U.S. Treasury has initiated a $40 billion treasury bond repurchase operation, viewed by the market as a "quasi-QE" measure aimed at releasing liquidity and refinancing at low interest rates to support the prices of risk assets.

labor market

In April, non-farm payrolls added 177,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and reflecting the resilience of the labor market. This provides a basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain a wait-and-see policy. Continued strength in employment has alleviated market concerns about a recession but has also weakened the likelihood of multiple unexpected interest rate cuts this year.

monetary policy dynamics

The Federal Reserve Chairman stated that they will reassess the current monetary policy framework and may abandon the "average inflation targeting" mechanism. In the future, they might extend the period of high interest rates and even increase the holding of medium- to long-term government bonds through balance sheet expansion to control the rise in long-term interest rates. The policy tone will be more flexible, and there is no urgency for preventive rate cuts in the short term.

Trade Policy and Global Economic Outlook

In early May, relevant authorities announced a 50% tariff increase on EU goods, which, although postponed, has already impacted market sentiment. The People's Bank of China implemented a "reduction in reserve requirements + interest rate cuts" policy combination, releasing 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, which is seen as the start of a new round of easing cycle, and market expectations for an improvement in Sino-U.S. relations have increased.

2. Crypto Market Overview

trading volume analysis

As of May 27, the average daily trading volume in the market was $117.4 billion, an increase of 15.8% compared to the previous period. During the two phases from May 6 to 12 and from May 21 to 22, trading volume surged significantly, with the daily trading volume once exceeding $180 billion, and the BTC price breaking $100,000 and $110,000 respectively.

Market Capitalization Analysis

As of May 27, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rebounded to $3.56 trillion, an increase of 17.0% from last month. BTC's market share is 62.6%, and ETH's market share is 9.6%, with the latter growing by 29.7% compared to the previous period. Since May 8, the total market capitalization has exceeded $3.3 trillion and has been steadily rising since then.

popular new coins

Among the popular tokens launched in May, VC-backed projects dominate, including Layer 2 projects SOPH and B2. Additionally, USD1 has become a popular narrative in May, with related projects such as B, Lista, and Staketone receiving widespread attention.

3. On-chain Data Analysis

ETF fund flow

In May, BTC ETF inflows reached $5.77 billion, and ETH ETF inflows totaled $317 million. The price of BTC rose from $94,212 to $108,969, an increase of approximately 13.5%. ETH increased from $1,794 to $2,635, a rise of 31.9%.

stablecoin market

In May, the total circulation of stablecoins increased by approximately $7.28 billion, mainly driven by the growth of USDT, USDE, and DAI.

4. Mainstream Currency Price Analysis

BTC analysis

BTC bulls are trying to keep the price above $109,588. If they break through $111,980, it could surge to $130,000. The support levels below are the 20-day EMA( at $104,886) and $100,000.

ETH analysis

ETH is finding support around $2,425. If it breaks through $2,738, it may rise to $3,000. The support levels below are at $2,323 and $2,111.

SOL analysis

SOL is supported at $169. If it breaks through $188, it may rise to $210-$220. The support level below is at the 50-day SMA($151).

5. Hot Events

USD1 ecology

The market capitalization of USD1 has exceeded 2.1 billion USD, making it the seventh largest stablecoin. Its core advantage lies in being issued by a specific family, and it is the first stablecoin project to receive high-level endorsement. The prices of several tokens related to USD1's partners have surged significantly.

The rise of the Believe platform

The core token of the Believe platform, Launchcoin, once approached a market value of nearly $310 million. The platform focuses on the concept of "social assetization," allowing users to automatically trigger token issuance by posting on the social platform. However, the platform's popularity heavily relies on the performance of Launchcoin, posing sustainability risks.

6. Future Outlook

Stablecoin Bill Progress

The "GENIUS Act" has entered the amendment process through a debate motion. The bill stipulates restrictions on issuance qualifications, reserve requirements, compliance obligations, and other content, aiming to strengthen the international dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins.

Ethereum ETF staking approval

The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on the Ethereum Trust ETF, with a final deadline set for the end of October. Hong Kong has approved Ethereum ETF staking services. The market expects that U.S. regulators will soon reach a framework for the relevant mechanisms, advancing the approval of the Ethereum spot ETF.