Crypto Market Dynamics: Ethereum Pullback May Present Buying Opportunity, Analysts Optimistic About Bitcoin's Future

Market Observation

Trump announced a major trade agreement with Japan, where Japan will invest $550 billion in the United States, and the U.S. will impose a 15% tariff on imported goods from Japan. This move significantly impacts industries such as automobiles, driving the Japanese stock market up. The third round of U.S.-China trade negotiations is scheduled to be held next week in Stockholm, aimed at postponing the critical tariff deadline. The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that the negotiations may involve topics such as China purchasing sanctioned Russian and Iranian oil.

The "AI Action Plan" that the Trump administration is about to release will focus on three main pillars: infrastructure, innovation, and global influence. It aims to promote the United States' leadership in the field of artificial intelligence by removing regulatory barriers and simplifying licensing processes.

President Trump and the Treasury Secretary have both publicly stated that the Federal Reserve should lower interest rates to stimulate the economy, with Trump hoping for rates to drop to 1%. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, believes that the essence of this debate is about the game of currency value, with Trump favoring economic stimulation through currency depreciation, while the Federal Reserve Chairman attempts to defend the currency's value. Dalio pointed out that current market indicators, such as the US stock market reaching historical highs and the relative depreciation of the dollar, show signs of loose monetary policy, and he predicts that the dollar will continue to weaken.

In the application layer of cryptocurrency, an analyst pointed out that the reason stablecoins are leading the revolution in the cross-border payment field lies in their ability to effectively address the pain points of the traditional financial system. Traditional cross-border payments rely on the SWIFT network, which not only has a complex process and high costs (with an average global fee as high as 6.2%), but also has a long transaction cycle. Especially in countries like Argentina and Nigeria, where capital flows are restricted and the local currency has long-term depreciation, stablecoins provide an important way to access stable assets and conduct efficient transactions.

Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after reaching a historic high of $123,100, with data showing that the market is in a "healthy but fragile balance," absorbing $640 million in selling pressure within the $115,000 to $120,000 range. Several analysts are optimistic about the market's future, but a pullback may occur in the short term. Some analysts believe that prices may first pull back to around $115,717 before attempting to hit new highs. Other analysts have pointed out that if the high time frame can maintain above $113,000, the next target may be $130,000. Moreover, some analysts, based on technical patterns, predict that Bitcoin's ultimate target could reach $140,000.

Ethereum has experienced a pullback after rising for eight consecutive days, with the current price around $3750. Its Relative Strength Index (RSI) has entered the overbought zone. Some analysts believe that Ethereum has not turned bearish, and a pullback to the $3200-$3400 range would be an ideal buying opportunity. Other analysts indicate that around $3400 is a key support and liquidity resonance area. Predictions suggest that Ethereum may pull back to the $3000 to $3200 range in August, after which it is expected to challenge the $4000 mark again, with some analysts optimistic about reaching $8000 within the coming months.

In the altcoin market, the price of the Zora token has surged, reaching an all-time high with an increase of nearly 300% since July 17. Additionally, LetsBonk's market share has skyrocketed from 5% to 64% within a month, in stark contrast to another platform's market share plummeting from 90% to 24%. In the past 24 hours, popular meme coins have emerged, such as $TRUST (market cap of $6.3 million) with the concept of borderless e-commerce platforms and $DNUT (market cap of $3.4 million) associated with Reddit community culture.

Key Data (As of July 23, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $118,684 (Year-to-date +26.9%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $51.971 billion
• Ethereum: $3,732.23 (Year-to-date +11.69%), daily spot trading volume is $48.862 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 75 (Greed)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.58 sat/vB, ETH: 0.46 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 60%, ETH 11.5%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 50.18%/49.82%
• Sector performance: NFT sector increased by 10.67%; CeFi sector increased by 3.29%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 129,759 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $376 million, including $49.56 million in BTC liquidations, $127 million in ETH liquidations, and $25.17 million in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (118302.75 USD), lower channel line (115960.12 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (3427.96 USD), lower channel line (3360.08 USD)

ETF Flows (As of July 22)

• Bitcoin ETF: -67.93 million USD, only one ETF achieved net inflow
• Ethereum ETF: +$534 million, the third highest in history.

Today's Outlook

• Jack Dorsey's Block will be added to the S&P 500 index on July 23.
• OneFootball will launch its token sale on July 24.
• A certain platform will distribute token airdrops on July 24.
• A trading platform will launch ASP (ASPECTA) spot trading on July 24.
• Trump plans to issue an executive order to promote the development of artificial intelligence and is considering designating July 23 as "Artificial Intelligence Action Day".
• Avail (AVAIL) will unlock approximately 972 million tokens at 4 PM on July 23, accounting for 38.23% of the current circulation, valued at around 18.9 million USD.
• SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens on July 23 at 4:30 PM, which accounts for 22.41% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 6.1 million USD.

Top 100 market cap gainers today: Pudgy Penguins up 21.4%, Saros up 17.7%, Flare up 15.3%, Worldcoin up 9.7%, Bonk up 7.3%.

Hot News

• Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of this year, and Ethereum to reach $10,000.
• ARK Invest acquired $182 million in BMNR common stock to support BitMine in advancing its Ethereum treasury strategy.
• Since July 12, a total of 1.81 billion PENGU have been transferred from the token deployment address to the exchange.
• Trend Research has configured ENS again after a year, extracting $5.5 million worth of ENS from the exchange.
• Arca transferred 2.183 million PENDLE to the exchange, expecting a profit of 2.13 million dollars.
• LetsBonk's market share on the Solana Meme token launch platform has increased to 64%.
• 21Shares submitted S-1 documents related to the ONDO ETF to the SEC.
• A certain exchange has added BNKR, JITOSOL, and MPLX to the asset roadmap.
• Nano Labs increases BNB strategic reserves to $90 million, plans to upgrade reserve strategy
• SPACEX transfers BTC worth $152 million for the first time in three years.
• Mexican real estate company Grupo Murano plans to create a Bitcoin vault worth $10 billion within five years.
• Bitcoin's market capitalization ratio has dropped below 60%
• GameSquare has been approved to inject an additional $150 million into its crypto vault and increase its holdings of 8,351 Ether.
• Public company Mercurity Fintech has reached a $200 million SOL funding agreement with Solana Ventures.
• TLGY has reached a business merger agreement with StablecoinX and secured $360 million in PIPE financing, the Ethena Foundation has initiated a $260 million pullback.
• Strategy spent approximately $740 million last week to acquire 6,220 Bitcoins.
• The Ether Machine, supported by Pantera and others, has raised $1.5 billion and will list while holding over 400,000 ETH.