Crypto Market Weekly Report: Ethereum Expected to Break Through 4-Year Resistance Level, Bitcoin May Rise Then Fall

1. Market Observation

Recently, the global economy is facing new uncertainties. The US and Europe have reached an agreement on trade issues, but there are differences in details, bringing new variables to the global economy. Market focus has turned to the domestic situation in the US, where the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged this week, but is under pressure to cut rates. Analysts generally believe that the Federal Reserve may pave the way for a rate cut in September. This week is seen as the "moment of truth," with interest rate decisions, tech giants' earnings reports, GDP, and employment data being released intensively, testing the resilience of the US economy.

In this context, some executives in the crypto industry have changed their views on market cycles. There is a viewpoint that, driven by multiple favorable factors, the traditional four-year cycle is no longer applicable, and the market is entering a "sustained stable prosperity" phase. However, this contrasts with public perception, as surveys show that only 14% of American adults own cryptocurrencies, with most still viewing them as high-risk assets.

Regarding Bitcoin, an analyst pointed out that the recent pullback in Bitcoin is due to dual pressures from both macro and micro factors: on the macro level, issues such as the U.S. credit rating are suppressing risk appetite; on the micro level, there are signs that institutional funds are flowing out of Bitcoin ETFs. He judges that there may continue to be pressure in the short term, but the long-term trend depends on the evolution of the global economy and regulatory environment.

Multiple analysts have provided predictions for Bitcoin's short-term trend. Some believe that Bitcoin needs to break through $119,500 to initiate a new round of rises. Others warn that it is currently between two key liquidation zones, expecting it may first test higher levels before retreating. Additionally, some analysts have presented two scenarios: a worst-case pullback to $112,000, and in the best case, hitting $125,000 in August.

Regarding Ethereum, analysts have stated that driven by multiple favorable factors, Ethereum is about to break through a four-year long resistance level, and it is almost inevitable that it will break through $4000 this week.

Among other assets, BNB reached a new high of $855, with a 24-hour rise of 7.5%. VINE surged 110% due to concept speculation. ZORA in the Base ecosystem continues to reach new highs. The blue-chip NFT sector saw a widespread rise, with over $157 million in sales on the Ethereum chain in the past 7 days.

2. Key Data

As of July 28, 12:00 HKT:

• Bitcoin: $119,465, year-to-date +27.77%
• Ethereum: $3,933.53, year-to-date +17.76%
• Fear and Greed Index: 75 (Greed)
• Market share: BTC 60%, ETH 11.9%
• 24-hour liquidations: 94,528 people liquidated, totaling $249 million

3. ETF Fund Flows

As of July 25:

• Bitcoin ETF: +$130 million
• Ethereum ETF: +$453 million, net inflow for 17 consecutive days

4. Today's Highlights

• A certain trading platform will support the replacement of the LOKA coin and rename it to A2Z.
• The Sui ecosystem Ika will launch its mainnet on July 29.
• Jupiter unlocked approximately 53.47 million coins, worth about 31.7 million US dollars.
• Sign unlocked approximately 150 million coins, valued at about 11.7 million USD

Top 100 Market Cap Gains Today: HEX +25.4%, a certain DEX +11.8%, SPX6900 +11.4%

5. Hot News

• This week's forecast: Ethereum's tenth anniversary; the "reciprocal tariff" window period approaches; the Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision.
• Data: Tokens such as SUI, ENA, OP will see a large unlock, with SUI unlocking valued at approximately $188 million.
• Data: In the past 7 days, NFT sales on the Ethereum blockchain reached nearly $160 million, with CryptoPunks leading the way.
• Ethena Foundation's subsidiary repurchased 83 million ENA through a third-party market maker.
• Some analysis suggests that the recent transfer of 80,000 BTC may come from the MyBitcoin hacker or its founder's wallet.