The Bitcoin/gold ratio risks falling by 35% after Wall Street loses 13 trillion USD.

The value of Bitcoin compared to gold (XAU) may fall sharply by 35% as it reflects bearish market signals that have occurred in the past and reacts to the large volatility that has wiped out 13 trillion USD from the US stock market.

BTC/XAU falls below important support level

As of April 22, for the first time since April 2022, the BTC/XAU ratio has closed below the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA 50; the red wave ) on the 2-week chart.

BTC/XAU performance chart – 2 weeks | Source: TradingViewIn the past, a decisive closing level below the 50-period EMA has led to a prolonged downtrend towards the 200-period EMA (green wave).

For example, in both 2021 and 2022, BTC/XAU had an initial recovery after testing the 50-period EMA; however, eventually, the price fell below this level and dropped towards the 200-period EMA.

The model is currently repeating in 2025 after two recent tests at the 50-EMA support level in 2024 and 2025. BTC/XAU is falling, indicating that a move towards the 200-EMA may be occurring, with a potential decline of about 35%.

Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, provides a similar bearish outlook for the Bitcoin-gold ratio, citing its extremely positive correlation with the U.S. stock market.

Bitcoin/gold compared to the market capitalization of the US stock market-GDP | Source: Mike McGlone*"13 trillion USD in US stock market capitalization has evaporated – equivalent to nearly 50% of GDP after falling from peak to trough in 2025. The Bitcoin/gold pair also has the same chart."*

"There will be a recovery in the bear market," he added, implying that while there may be a short-term recovery, the overall trend for both Bitcoin and stocks may still be down at the current time.

This statement contrasts with the decoupling story occurring between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks.

BTC/XAU fall is often a bearish signal

BTC/XAU weakening is not just a relative signal; it often precedes a sharp decline in Bitcoin prices.

This trend is clearly reflected in the 2021–2022 cycle. After BTC/XAU fell below the EMA 50 line at the end of 2021, the BTC/USD pair followed suit, entering a prolonged bear market that caused the price to decrease from over $42,000 to below $17,000.

BTC/XAU price performance chart compared to BTC/USD – 2 weeks | Source: TradingViewThis pattern also repeats in previous cycles, specifically during the periods 2019-2020 and 2018-2019. Each time, Bitcoin has touched a bottom near the 200-week EMA line or fallen below this line to establish a bottom in the cycle.

BTC/USD Price Chart – 1 Week | Source: TradingViewIf the historical correlation between BTC/XAU and BTC/USD holds true in the current cycle, Bitcoin will face the risk of falling to the 200-week EMA by the end of the year, which is currently at around $50,950.

You can see the BTC price here.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should conduct thorough research before making any decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

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