Why "Selling in May" Could Be a Big Mistake in 2025, Analyst Reveals

The old financial market adage "Sell in May and go away" has long been a guiding principle for investors wanting to avoid potential summer volatility. However, some analyses suggest that this adage may not hold true for Bitcoin in the coming month. Some arguments indicate significant differences in the market context of 2025. These factors suggest that prices may rise rather than fall in May. 4 Reasons Why Selling in May Could Be a Huge Mistake in 2025 Many analysts have recently emphasized a key reason: Bitcoin is now closely linked to the global M2 money supply. M2 measures the amount of money circulating in the economy. It includes cash, savings deposits, and highly liquid assets. Historically, M2 shows a strong correlation with the price of Bitcoin. When central banks such as the FED, ECB, or PBoC increase the money supply, Bitcoin tends to rise.

Kaduna has shared a chart confirming that this trend will continue into 2025. According to this model, May could be a breakthrough month for Bitcoin. Although not all analysts agree with this view, investors are increasingly accepting it, creating a positive sentiment in the market. Kaduna emphasized: "Selling in May and then leaving will be a big mistake." Secondly, historical data supports the outlook for Kaduna. According to Coinglass, Bitcoin has delivered an average return of over 7.9% in May over the past 12 years. Although the financial markets often experience volatility during the summer, Bitcoin does not always follow that pattern.

Instead, May often shows positive performance. This is not the strongest month, but it outperforms June and September. An investor on X has observed that since 2010, Bitcoin has seen nine green Mays and six red Mays. The original proverb comes from the stock market, where historical data shows that this market is more efficient for stocks, not necessarily for cryptocurrencies. Another key point supporting Kaduna's argument is the increase in capital flows into Bitcoin ETFs. BeInCrypto recently reported that spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted new investor demand on Monday. They recorded a net inflow of 591.29 million dollars and extended their winning streak to seven consecutive days. Notably, BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) is leading. This fund recorded the largest inflow among similar funds, attracting $970.93 million in a single day, bringing the total accumulated net inflow to $42.17 billion.

This increase reflects the growing confidence of investors and the long-term optimism for Bitcoin in 2025. That sentiment is likely to carry over into May, creating further upward momentum for Bitcoin. Finally, Bitcoin is clearly decoupling from the S&P 500, which often signals major bull runs. Investor arndxt has noted this divergence. BeInCrypto also reports an increasing disconnection between Bitcoin and the NASDAQ index. Optimistic analysts interpret this as a sign that Bitcoin is functioning more like an independent asset, less tied to traditional markets. "The old mantra 'Sell in May and go away' is no longer true for cryptocurrencies, liquidity pressure is easing and this time, May could mark the beginning of a rally rather than a pause." - arndxt predicts.

The strong support from the M2 correlation, positive performance in May in Bitcoin's history, large ETF capital inflows, and detachment from traditional indices suggest that selling Bitcoin in May 2025 could be a serious mistake. However, investors should remain cautious. Key data from the Fed, such as CPI, interest rates, and updates on trade tensions, may still create uncertainty for the outlook of May.