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AI Weekly Hotspot Report (04.25 - 05.02)
Table of Contents:
1. Market Trends
1.1. Market Sentiment
This week, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies reached $3.00 trillion, a month-on-month increase of 1.29%. The exchange trading volume increased by 5.21% month-on-month, reaching $1.23 trillion. The price of Bitcoin rose by 1.80% to $97,189.00. The overall market shows a moderate upward trend, and investor sentiment remains cautiously optimistic.
According to Gate.io's Fear and Greed Index, today's market sentiment is Greed, with an index of 67. Compared to yesterday, the market sentiment has risen, showing an overall optimistic mood.
1.2. Macroeconomic Impact
Recent data shows that the global economic recovery is slowing, and inflationary pressures continue. The U.S. March core PCE price index year-on-year is 2.60%, in line with expectations; month-on-month it is 0.30%, below the expected 0.40%. The Eurozone April CPI preliminary value year-on-year is 6.10%, higher than the expected 5.90%; month-on-month it is 0.70%, above the expected 0.60%. The U.S. April ISM manufacturing PMI is 47.10%, lower than the previous value of 46.30%, marking the seventh consecutive month in contraction territory. The Eurozone April manufacturing PMI final value is 45.80%, higher than the preliminary value of 45.50%, but still in contraction territory.
The Producer Price Index reflects the upstream price transmission pressure. The US PPI for March was 2.70% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 4.60%; month-on-month it was -0.50%, lower than the expected -0.10%. The Eurozone's PPI for March was 6.70% year-on-year, down from the previous value of 13.20%. Upstream price pressures have eased somewhat, but remain at a high level.
The job market is showing weakness, with the U.S. adding 186,000 non-farm jobs in April, far below the expected 313,000. The number of initial unemployment claims is 235,000, higher than the expected 192,000. Used car prices decreased by 8.80% year-on-year, and the annualized figure for new housing starts is 1.448 million units, lower than the expected 1.505 million units.
Overall, although inflationary pressures have eased somewhat, they remain at a high level. Signs of an economic slowdown are emerging, and the job market is weak. The Federal Reserve may raise interest rates by 25 basis points in June, bringing the rate range to 5.00%-5.25%. The European Central Bank may also raise rates further. The loose monetary policy is expected to continue tightening, putting pressure on risk assets.
1.3 Financial Calendar
Analysis summary:
This week's important economic data mainly focuses on the Bank of England's interest rate decision, the number of initial jobless claims in the United States, and EIA crude oil inventories. Among them, the Bank of England's interest rate decision will directly affect the exchange rate trend of the British pound, while the number of initial jobless claims in the US and EIA crude oil inventory data will impact the US dollar and crude oil prices.
In addition, China's M2 money supply annual rate for April and the Eurozone's retail sales monthly rate are also worth paying attention to, reflecting the inflation and consumption trends of major economies.
Overall, the economic data released this week will have a significant impact on the foreign exchange market, stock market, and commodity market, and investors need to closely monitor changes in the relevant data.
2. Analysis of Capital Flow and Price Volatility
2.1. Price Fluctuation Analysis
BTC Volatility Based on the daily closing prices of BTC over the past week, the weekly volatility of BTC is 1.23%.
Price Fluctuation and Reasons This week, the price of BTC fluctuated between $93,000 and $97,000. The increase in price is mainly due to the rising demand for cryptocurrencies in the market and the continuous influx of institutional investors. However, the uncertainty of the macroeconomic situation has also led to a certain degree of pullback.
Impact of Trading Volume Changes An increase in trading volume usually indicates a rise in market activity, which may trigger price fluctuations. This week, the average daily trading volume of BTC has increased compared to last week, reflecting a growing enthusiasm among market participants.
Market Activity and Potential Price Direction From a technical perspective, the MACD indicator for BTC has generated a golden cross signal, and the RSI indicator has also entered the overbought zone, all of which suggest a potential upward trend. However, investors still need to closely monitor changes in the macro situation.
2.2. Capital Market Analysis
According to the latest capital flow data, major cryptocurrencies show different trends of capital inflow and outflow. Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as the leaders of the cryptocurrency market, attract much attention regarding their capital flow.
Bitcoin ( BTC ) Capital Flow: The data shows that the recent net inflow of BTC funds has shown slight fluctuations. This may reflect the cautious attitude of institutional investors and long-term holders, while also attracting some new retail investors to enter the market.
Ethereum (ETH) Fund Flows: At the same time, the net inflow of funds into Ethereum (ETH) remained relatively stable. This may be related to the continued development of the Ethereum ecosystem and the promotion of innovative applications such as DeFi.
Other Cryptocurrency Capital Flows: In addition to BTC and ETH, other cryptocurrencies such as Solana(SOL), Cardano(ADA), etc., also show varying degrees of capital inflows and outflows. Investors need to closely monitor the development trends of these currencies.
Overall, the flow of funds in the cryptocurrency market reflects investor sentiment and market activity. Investors need to consider various factors comprehensively and assess investment risks prudently.
2.3. Smart Money Analysis
BTC Large Order Transaction Volume Analysis According to the recent large order transaction volume data of BTC, the trend of institutional fund flow can be observed. Large buy orders dominate, indicating that institutional funds are continuously flowing into the BTC market. This trend suggests that BTC may continue its upward trend in the future.
ETH Large Order Transaction Volume Analysis The large order transaction volume data for ETH shows that the strength of buyers and sellers is relatively balanced. This means that institutional funds have differing views on ETH, with some institutions possibly gradually reducing their positions while others continue to increase their holdings. The future trend of ETH may maintain a pattern of oscillation and consolidation.
Analysis of Large Transaction Volume for Altcoins In terms of altcoins, large sell orders dominate. This indicates that institutional funds are withdrawing significantly from the altcoin market. In the short term, altcoins may face significant selling pressure and lack upward momentum.
Summary
A comprehensive analysis of the large transaction volume data of various mainstream cryptocurrencies reveals that institutional funds are concentrating on top coins like BTC. This trend may drive BTC to continue its upward trajectory, while altcoins may face downward pressure.
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3. Hot Topics
Is the Bitcoin million-dollar army approaching, and is the altcoin season celebration starting?
The Bitcoin million-dollar army is pressing in.
Over the past week, the price of Bitcoin has broken through the $96,000 mark, sparking heated discussions in the market. Analysts are predicting that Bitcoin is likely to reclaim the six-figure price of $100,000 in this bull market cycle.
According to on-chain data analysis by CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has entered the early stage of a rally. If momentum persists, Bitcoin is expected to break through the range of $150,000 to $175,000, setting a new all-time high. This will further solidify Bitcoin's position as "digital gold."
The CrossX indicator shows a strong market cycle, and the recent buy and sell signals confirm the natural fluctuations within a larger upward trend. Despite the pullback, analysts emphasize that this is a healthy correction within the broader bullish trend.
"Bitcoin is currently in a healthy correction phase, aiming to form a higher low above $88,000, further consolidating its ongoing bullish market structure," said analyst Axel Adler.
Is the season of altcoins coming?
At the same time, the decline in Bitcoin's dominance has sparked heated discussions in the market about the arrival of the "altcoin season." Data shows that mainstream altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano are gaining increasing attention on social media.
"We don't know what the catalyst will be, but some interesting things are on the way. With Bitcoin's dominance reaching its peak, we have the perfect formula for a surge." an analyst asserted.
In addition, the meme coin market has also seen a small surge. The social activity and trading volume of popular meme coins like Dogecoin ( DOGE ) and Shiba Inu ( SHIB ) have rebounded.
"History shows that the best time to enter any type of altcoin cycle is when the crowd shows complete indifference to altcoins." stated Santiment analysis company.
Overall, the influx of million-dollar Bitcoin armies has injected new momentum into the entire cryptocurrency market. Whether it's mainstream altcoins or niche meme coins, they are expected to share in the spoils during this bull market.
4. Major Events
Major Event Review
USDT Quarterly Audit On May 2, 2025, Tether will release its proof of reserves report for the first quarter of 2025. The report shows that as of March 31, 2025, Tether's total exposure to U.S. Treasury bonds is approximately $120 billion, setting a new historical high. At the same time, Tether's total assets exceed $149.27 billion, with liabilities at $143.68 billion, resulting in assets exceeding liabilities by $5.6 billion. The report further confirms the strength and transparency of Tether.
SUI supports sBTC On May 2, 2025, Sui announced exclusive support for Stacks' sBTC, a decentralized financial asset based on Bitcoin. This initiative aims to provide decentralized financial services to Bitcoin holders, eliminating reliance on centralized custodians. Sui will leverage its high performance and scalability to promote the development of decentralized finance for Bitcoin.
ALPACA Surges On April 30, 2025, the ALPACA token surged by 421.75% in the past 24 hours, triggering a liquidation event of $45.73 million, with a single highest transaction reaching $3.98 million. The surge of ALPACA has attracted market attention.
Trump's Tariff Policy On May 2, 2025, the Trump administration announced a 25% tariff on imported cars, leading to a significant blow to U.S. automakers in the first quarter. Several listed mining companies are expected to report losses, and industry profits have sharply declined.
BTC Halving Approaches On May 1, 2025, the on-chain momentum ratio of Bitcoin reached 0.8, marking the beginning of its upward cycle. Analysts predict that Bitcoin could reach between $125,000 and $150,000 in the next cycle.
Large-scale SHIB Burn On May 1, 2025, the Shiba Inu team burned 280,097,384 SHIB tokens, reducing its circulating supply to approximately 584.4 trillion tokens. Analysts predict that SHIB will soar to $0.0000236 in 2025.
Metaplanet Expansion On May 1, 2025, Metaplanet announced the establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary in the United States, planning to raise $250 million from U.S. institutional investors to expand its Bitcoin acquisition strategy.
PENGU Breakthrough Trend Line On May 2, 2025, the price of PENGU broke through a key downward trend line, triggering a 100% increase. Analysts expect PENGU to rise further by 200%.
Ethena Enters TON On May 2, 2025, Ethena Labs reached a partnership with the TON blockchain to provide its USDe stablecoin for Telegram's 1 billion users. This paves the way for the global adoption of USDe.
DOGE Social Activities Lead Data shows that Dogecoin is leading other Meme coins in social activities as of May 1, 2025, reflecting its influence in the Meme coin community.
Solana Breaks Expectations On May 2, 2025, Solana formed a bullish reversal candle on the 12-hour chart, and analysts expect that if it breaks through the resistance level of $150, it could drive Solana up to a range of $180 to $211.
Sui leverages Stacks On May 2, 2025, Sui announced exclusive support for Stacks' sBTC, aiming to provide decentralized financial services for Bitcoin holders and eliminate reliance on centralized custodians.
HINU Community Building On May 2, 2025, Husky Inu announced the launch of the Earn App to reward users for participation and plans to use 50% of the profits to buy back and destroy HINU tokens to ensure their value increases.
Coldware Privacy Concerns On May 2, 2025, Coldware garnered attention in the SUI and Ethereum communities for its focus on privacy, being regarded as a potential leader in addressing blockchain privacy issues.
Cosmos Vulnerability Warning On May 2, 2025, security company Oak Security warned that there is a vulnerability in the Cosmos SDK that could lead to DDoS attacks and recommended taking appropriate measures.
5. Global Policies
The following is a summary of new political dynamics, economic policies, or regulations related to the cryptocurrency industry based on news from April 25 to May 2, 2025, along with an analysis of their impact on the industry and the market.
Cryptocurrency Policy of the Trump Administration
According to news reports, the Trump administration has pledged to make significant contributions to the cryptocurrency industry. Both the Treasury Secretary and the Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) chair nominated by Trump are supporters of cryptocurrency, which is seen as a positive shift in U.S. policy towards the cryptocurrency sector, marking the imminent arrival of the "golden age" of the cryptocurrency market.
Impact Analysis:
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ( SEC ) delays decision on XRP and Dogecoin ETF
On April 29, 2025, the SEC extended its decision on the XRP and Dogecoin ETFs, with a final ruling expected in October.
Impact Analysis:
More than 300 people in the crypto industry call on the Trump administration to drop the lawsuit against open-source software developers
About 300 participants in the cryptocurrency industry have signed a petition calling on the Trump administration to end the illegal prosecution of open-source software developers and urging the White House's cryptocurrency chief to defend software developers.
Impact Analysis:
Summary
Overall, the cryptocurrency policies of the Trump administration, the SEC's regulatory decisions on cryptocurrency investment products, and the industry's calls for government regulation will have a profound impact on the development of the cryptocurrency industry. Favorable policies and regulations help boost market confidence, attract investors, and promote innovation; while overly strict regulations may hinder industry growth. A balance needs to be struck between the industry and the government to create a conducive environment.
6. Investment Analysis
6.1. Investment Recommendations
Disclaimer: The above suggestions are based solely on current market analysis and are not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry a high level of risk; please invest cautiously.
6.2 Investment Strategy
This Week's Popular Token Analysis
The price of Bitcoin has broken through the $96,000 mark, and many institutions are optimistic about Bitcoin returning above $100,000. Trader Cold Blooded Shiller believes that Bitcoin is likely to break resistance and set new highs. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe shares the same view, expecting Bitcoin to experience the next wave of upward momentum after consolidating in the current range. Trader Jelle points out that the sell order liquidity above the current price is mainly concentrated around $96,000, which could become a target for bullish attacks. Overall, institutions remain optimistic about the future trend of Bitcoin.
Summary of Quantitative Strategies This Week
The contract grid strategy has performed remarkably well in the highly volatile altcoin market, with a maximum yield of 2558.02%. The spot Martingale strategy has also achieved nearly 9 times the profit in the DOG_USDT market. Overall, high-risk high-return quantitative strategies have yielded considerable profits in this week's market.
Summary
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4. Market Interest Rate
Note:
Disclaimer: The above data is provided by a third party and may be subject to delays, deviations, or errors. Please use it with caution and at your own risk. The content of this report is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
6.4. Technical Analysis
Bollinger Bands Trading Strategy
Bollinger Bands are a commonly used technical indicator that identifies potential overbought or oversold conditions through the standard deviation of prices. This strategy employs the following trading rules:
Backtesting Results
Backtesting the ETH data for the entire year of 2024 based on the above trading strategy, the results are as follows:
Data Analysis
Advantages and Disadvantages Analysis
Advantages:
Disadvantages:
Overall, the Bollinger Bands trading strategy is relatively simple to operate, but it requires further optimization and improvement in parameter selection and setting of take profit and stop loss. Additionally, it needs to be combined with other analytical methods to enhance trading efficiency.