Has the bearish market ended or is this a temporary improvement – analysts' opinions are divided.

The cryptocurrency market started May on a positive note, but skepticism is still strong. Expert opinions vary.

Some experts believe that current signals may herald the start of a new bull cycle, especially when Bitcoin BTCUSD overcomes important psychological levels. However, there are also those who warn that temporary factors may distort the indicators. Let's consider the arguments from both sides.

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Is the market preparing for a bull rally?

The market cycle indicator from CryptoQuant, designed to identify bullish and bearish phases in the crypto market, has recently shown positive signals. Since February 24, 2024, the indicator has consistently pointed to a bearish market. However, in recent days it has begun to show signs of a possible reversal.

However, this signal remains weak and unclear. Additionally, in mid-2024, the indicator had already given erroneous forecasts. The market remained in sideways movement for a long time, not forming a clear trend.

Analyst Burakkesmeci used the 30-day and 365-day moving averages (30DMA and 365DMA) to better assess the bullish potential.

"It is important that the 30DMA — the short-term moving average — has started to rise. If this indicator crosses above the 365DMA, history suggests that we may see parabolic rallies in Bitcoin again," predicted Burakkesmeci.

Recovery may be false

However, analyst Darkfost offered a more cautious perspective. He refers to the (Growth Rate Indicator), which assesses the state of the bitcoin market — bullish or bearish — by comparing the market and realized capitalizations of BTC. Darkfost noted that the indicator is returning to the bullish zone. This coincides with Bitcoin's recovery above the important mark of $100,000.

However, Darkfost is in no hurry to predict the end of the bear market and the beginning of a bull rally. He warned that the recovery could be false, as it is driven by special conditions. These include Donald Trump's signing of a trade agreement with the United Kingdom. It helped alleviate concerns about tariff shocks. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve maintained a cautious stance and kept interest rates unchanged.

"Traditional market dynamics may remain disrupted for some time. This makes the current situation particularly difficult to understand," noted Darkfost.

Meanwhile, another important indicator is the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. It reached 73, entering the "Greed" zone, which is the highest value in the last two months. This indicates that investor sentiment is shifting from caution to enthusiasm.

However, high levels of "Greed" or even "Extreme Greed" often serve as warning signals. Historically, such levels have preceded significant price corrections.

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