Is Dogecoin Dying? Technical Signals Suggest a Prolonged "Winter"

At the end of the quiet cycle in mid-June, veteran market technician Tony "The Bull" Severino, CMT, posted a monthly Dogecoin (DOGE) chart showing that the excited barks of this meme coin may be gradually turning into tired whimpers. The 1-month candlestick chart, published on TradingView at 22:43 UTC+2 on June 17, 2025, fixed DOGE at $0.1694 — down about 2.3% for the session — and placed three clear black arrows at the point where prior macro momentum peaked, rolled over, and ultimately bled into a prolonged downtrend. Is Dogecoin just pretending to be dead? On the price frame, the first arrow was at the January 2018 peak, when DOGE temporarily tagged the two-cent area before giving up almost all of its gains. The second arrow marked an explosion of excitement in May 2021, when the token skyrocketed to just under seventy cents and then began to decline for two years. The third arrow landed on the cluster of the most recent lower monthly peaks that peaked just under $0.26 last month and has since slipped below the twenty-cent psychological threshold.

Below the candles, Severino stacks its preferred long-term MACD (được labeled as "LMACD") with the default frequency chart. The indicator—blue for the fast line, orange for the signal line—records an almost rhythmic rhythm: steep positive crossovers during parabolic bullishes, followed by equally strong bearish reversals when buyers are exhausted. The highest green bars of the frequency chart at the beginning of 2017 and early 2021 coincide with those price surges; in each case, when the frequency chart faded to neutral and turned red, DOGE entered a multi-year downtrend. Today, that pattern seems to be repeating. The blue LMACD line has just crossed below the orange signal line, printing a slightly negative histogram value of -0.0263 while the signal is at 0.1704 and the LMACD itself is at 0.1440. The configuration reflects the early stages of the 2018 and 2022 recessions, two previous reversal points that Severino highlighted with his arrows. In his own words, the monthly oscillator "seems to want to reverse and die", hinting that the crossover could signal a deeper retracement of historical support zones. From a structural point of view, DOGE is currently stuck halfway between the bottom of the previous cycle near the five-cent mark and the overhead resistance at the late 20202 swing peak around $0.48. The weakening momentum on the LMACD suggests that the sellers still hold the upper hand unless new demand emerges fast enough to neutralize the bearish crossover that is starting. A decisive close below the April low near $0.13 would open the chart to the vacuum zone, as low as the cycle bottom at $0.0491. Severino's analysis, although technically rigorous, was presented at a time when cryptocurrency liquidity was generally declining ahead of a bleak summer and when risk appetite showed signs of weakening across digital assets due to postponed expectations regarding the next interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. For long-term traders who follow momentum more than memes, the monthly crossover is more valuable than any viral tweet. History does not repeat itself exactly, but for those holding Dogecoin, it has rhymed with alarming accuracy every time the LMACD bends from a high peak. Whether this dog-themed coin actually curls up for a longer sleep or just stops before another round of tail-wagging speculation, will depend on how the price reacts if the histogram becomes more negative in the coming months. For now, the chart's message is unclear: Dogecoin's mainstream trend has lost its rhythm, and momentum traders may want to pay attention to the dog's breath before assuming it's just playing. #CryptoStocks