Market Analysis: US stocks approaching historical highs, key tests ahead.

On June 27, news reported that the S&P 500 index is currently nearing its historical high, but with the earnings season approaching, the foundation of this round of gains is facing a significant test.

From a profit expectation perspective, due to the ongoing impact of tariff resistance, Wall Street expects the S&P 500 index constituents' profits in the second quarter to grow only 2.8% year-on-year, which may mark the smallest increase in two years. Data from Yardeni Research shows that only 6 out of 11 sectors are expected to achieve profit growth, the fewest since the first quarter of 2023.

Market concerns are gradually emerging: Observers point out that the current index valuation is too high, requiring a surge in profits or significant interest rate cuts to support existing levels; technical analysts also believe that if more sectors do not join the upward trend, the index may decline in the coming months. Sarah Hunt, Chief Market Strategist at Alpine Woods Capital Investors, bluntly stated: "There are risks in the stock market rebound, and one of the biggest issues right now is whether the deterioration of some sectors will outpace the growth momentum of others."

Impact on the cryptocurrency market

- If the US stock market weakens and the Federal Reserve signals interest rate cuts and other easing measures, it may boost crypto assets like BTC and ETH.
- If risk sentiment cools down comprehensively (U.S. stocks and the cryptocurrency market are under pressure simultaneously), crypto assets may follow suit in the short term.