Crypto Assets Market Outlook and Trend Analysis

The weekend gave me more space to think, allowing me to sort out some ideas about the market.

I believe the overall trend of the Crypto Assets market will become clear only after September. Considering macroeconomic headwinds, summer liquidity constraints, and quarterly position adjustments, the real market dynamics will only begin after the August holidays end and market participants return. Recent market activity shows that the rise of most small coins is primarily driven by short squeezes. Traders, influenced by the previous rebound, chase momentum but lack support from long-term holders. Most people have already been frustrated during the previous market turbulence. As expected, most tokens that experienced a sharp rise subsequently underwent the same drastic decline.

The rebound of Ethereum was unexpected, with previously severely impacted sectors, such as artificial intelligence and meme coins, leading this wave of recovery. In contrast, tokens with real use cases, strong fundamentals, or buyback mechanisms have shown resilience—performing more steadily during the downturn and recovering faster. Syrup, Hype, and AAVE are good examples. Although SPX is a meme coin, its structure is quite different. From this, we can draw the following insights:

1. The demand for Bitcoin is real and enduring.

Traditional capital is gradually entering the market through regulated channels such as ETFs.

The current capital nature supporting BTC is completely different from previous cycles. This is why large-scale BTC liquidations are unlikely to occur unless triggered by macro events.

2. The internal differentiation of small coins has intensified.

In the end, capital will flow back to small coins—but it will not be comprehensive. Only tokens with clear use cases and practical application scenarios are likely to attract this funding. This is why I believe Ethereum will outperform other public chains. Regulatory clarity, the growing adoption of decentralized finance, a deflationary structure, and staking demand together create a strong flywheel effect. Additionally, due to ETH's long-term failure to meet expectations, there are still marginal buyers waiting in the over-the-counter market.

3. Venture-backed coins face structural risks

Token unlocks will continue to exert pressure on price movements. In the case of insufficient liquidity, the ongoing selling pressure from validators and early investors limits the upside potential. This is why I believe that tokens listed on centralized exchanges with overvalued valuations have poor future prospects. Certain ecosystem tokens, in particular, face continuous selling pressure due to their validator reward structures that lead to this situation.

4. Geng coin has structural advantages

Meme coins have structural advantages, no venture capital unlocks, fair launches, and are entirely based on attention. This is a pure hype mechanism – functioning just like in the first cycle.

But I think this phase is coming to an end.

Certain token generation events and the launch of specific coins marked the peak of interest in meme coins. After that, interest in meme coins began to wane. Even during the rebound in April, the performance of certain public chains was not as good as ETH—if everyone has already held, when the momentum of meme coins fades, who will be the marginal buyers?

Some meme coins may still perform well, especially those that have gained popularity through influencers on platforms like TikTok or Instagram, outside of crypto Twitter. These might still bring about asymmetric wealth effects. However, the era of "cute animal coins" as alpha has come to an end. Only those coins with strong narratives and deep market understanding truly hold speculative value.

It is worth mentioning that the fatigue and skepticism towards venture-backed tokens have opened the door for fairly launched Web2/3 projects, which will become the next wave of wealth generation opportunities.

Some projects are great examples. But to seize these opportunities, you need to be active on the chain. When information is asymmetric, big opportunities always arise. Once everyone is aware, it no longer offers returns.

This is why I pay more attention to the on-chain market. The success of certain projects has sparked the desire to find the "next dark horse," and capital has begun to chase similar fair launch altcoin narratives. Just like a trader who made a fortune trading meme coins—attention directs capital flow.

5. Future Market Trends

So, if meme coin is no longer the opportunity... what's next?

My opinion: The combination of AI and Crypto Assets.

If you follow my updates, you will know that most of my operations during this cycle—after certain public chains and venture capital-supported tokens in their early stages—have focused on meme coins and AI.

Just like the DeFi summer, most early AI projects have failed after the hype. However, projects that are truly based on practicality are quietly building during this bear market. We have already seen some of these projects emerge on-chain.

As the profits from meme coins dwindle, attention will naturally shift to new narratives. AI, with its clear practicality, is well-suited to become the next focal point.

Many AI x Crypto projects adopt fair launches, echoing the narratives of certain successful projects.

This is why I researched and laid out in advance in this field during the calm weeks. There is no need to rush to build a full position now - but I believe that if the market rises strongly again, this field will hold the greatest asymmetrical opportunities.