The Intrinsic Logic and Macroeconomic Analysis of Bitcoin Price Evolution

In this in-depth dialogue, Arthur Hayes and Kyle Chasse conducted a comprehensive discussion on the intrinsic logic of Bitcoin price evolution and its relationship with the macro economy.

US-China Trade Game and Bitcoin Price

Arthur believes that the Sino-US trade war is essentially a long-term trend, and the increase in market volatility will support the price of Bitcoin to break through one million dollars. He pointed out that the Trump administration's policies are actually constantly testing the market's bottom line, adjusting strategies to advance its goals.

The Key Role of Fiscal Policy

Arthur emphasized that the key factor driving the rise in Bitcoin prices is fiscal policy, not monetary policy. He expects that the U.S. fiscal deficit will continue to widen in the coming years, which will provide strong momentum for the increase in Bitcoin prices.

2026 Liquidity Peak and Bitcoin Price Prediction

Arthur predicts that an extremely loose policy cycle may occur between 2026 and 2027, during which Bitcoin prices are expected to reach $250,000. He believes that the real "crazy phase" may appear during this period.

Analysis of the Altcoin Market

Regarding the altcoin market, Arthur expressed optimism about Solana and some projects with real users and actual revenue. He emphasized that the next phase of investment narratives will focus on "fundamentals".

Investment Strategy Recommendations

Arthur suggests that investors first clarify their "profit threshold" and develop an investment strategy based on their personal situation and goals. He warns against over-investing to the point of losing sleep due to price fluctuations.

The Relationship Between Bitcoin and Traditional Assets

Arthur observed that Bitcoin is gradually decoupling from the stock market and beginning to exhibit characteristics similar to gold. He expects this trend to continue, but further market validation is still needed.

Overall, Arthur remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of Bitcoin, believing it will continue to serve as an important tool for hedging against global economic uncertainty.