From World War II to Trump's Re-election: The End of an Era

For nearly a century, we have experienced an unprecedented super bull market in financial assets. This prolonged rise has shaped the thinking of several generations of investors, leading them to habitually believe that "the market always goes up." However, this feast may be over, and many will face harsh financial realities.

The Roots of the Super Bull Market

The super bull market from 1939 to 2024 is not a coincidence, but rather driven by a series of structural changes, with the United States always at the core:

1. After World War II, the United States rose to become a global superpower.
2. Expansion of the labor market: Large-scale entry of women and minorities
3. The Victory of the Cold War and the Wave of Globalization

These transformations have collectively driven the long-term growth of financial assets. However, these are one-off events that cannot be repeated. We are witnessing the final supports of this ultra-long cycle of growth being withdrawn one by one.

Future Outlook

The global macro trends that previously drove the stock market up are reversing:

• The female labor participation rate may decline.
• Immigration policies are tightening, and the growth of minority labor force is limited.
• Interest rates are difficult to decrease further.
• The trend of de-globalization is intensifying.
• Geopolitical tensions are high

These factors may lead to a prolonged market downturn. Investors should be prepared for capital controls and fiscal suppression policies.

Possible Measures the Government May Take

1. Financial repression: Lowering savings return rates through various means.
2. Retirement account management: mandatory allocation of government bonds
3. Asset Freezing: Expand the government's power to freeze assets
4. Strengthen regulation: further restrict capital flow

Coping Strategies: Gold and Bitcoin

In this environment, investors need to look for assets that are difficult for the government to confiscate and are not under Western control. Gold and Bitcoin have become attractive options:

1. Gold: Countries are rapidly increasing their gold reserves to respond to changes in the global economic landscape.
2. Bitcoin: For small and medium-sized countries lacking the capability to manage physical gold, Bitcoin may become a better option.

Although the price of Bitcoin may reach $1 million in the future, investors need to be prepared to first endure a severe bear market. In this era filled with uncertainty, it is crucial to maintain patience and a long-term perspective.