Improvement in the macro environment drives the Crypto Assets market Rebound

Recently, the geopolitical tensions have eased, and the expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have increased, driving funds back into the Crypto Assets market. The prices of mainstream digital assets have rebounded to high levels, and small-cap tokens have stopped falling and stabilized, indicating a significant warming of overall market sentiment.

The decline in macro risks has improved market sentiment. Geopolitical tensions have eased, expectations for US monetary policy have shifted towards easing, and the Nasdaq index has reached a new high.

The momentum of capital inflow has significantly strengthened and is expected to continue. Data shows that Crypto Assets ETFs had a net inflow of $1.7 billion this week, with the issuance of stablecoins accelerating and the premium rate in the over-the-counter market rising.

Bitcoin maintains a strong oscillation at a high level, with Ethereum following suit in its rise. Mainstream Crypto Assets related concept stocks are performing actively.

The liquidity of small-cap tokens has marginally improved, but the upside is constrained. The TOTAL2 index rebounded and then retreated, while the market capitalization ratio of other tokens has stopped declining and is fluctuating. On-chain activity has slightly picked up but remains in a weak range.

The market is currently at the end of a consolidation phase. In the short term, attention should be paid to the funding breakthrough and cooperation situation, while patiently waiting for structural strengthening of small-cap tokens and signs of capital returning to mainstream tokens.

Macroeconomic and Market Environment Analysis

It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the growth rate of the US economy will shift from moderate to slowing down. Weak retail sales and employment data indicate a weakening of consumption and investment momentum. Inflation has slightly risen due to tariffs and oil prices, but remains under control. The uncertainty of tariff policies has decreased, with targeted increases and exemptions coexisting.

Fund Flow and Mainstream Token Market Structure

External Capital Flow:

• ETF funds had a net inflow of $1.7 billion this week, with the inflow scale significantly increasing.
• The stablecoin increased by 1.8 billion dollars this week, with an average daily issuance of 263 million dollars, which is at a high level.

Market Sentiment Indicator:

• The over-the-counter premium rate of stablecoins continues to rise.

Bitcoin:

• The technical aspect maintains a strong fluctuation around $106,000.
• The on-chain chip distribution has not changed much from last week, with $103,000 as a strong short-term support level.

Ethereum:

• The price of Bitcoin remains volatile, with funds prioritizing inflow into Bitcoin.
• The number of active addresses on-chain has increased, reflecting a rebound in market sentiment.