Who will be the next Crypto Assets ETF hotspot?

A recent poll shows that after Bitcoin and Ethereum, over 60% of respondents believe Solana(SOL) could become the next popular ETF target.

This result is consistent with the general market view. Several industry experts have expressed optimism about the prospects of SOL's ETF:

• A research director at a major bank predicts that ETFs for crypto assets such as SOL may be approved by 2025.
• A well-known investor stated that they are preparing for the SOL ETF.
• The CEO of a certain asset management company stated on a TV show that Solana is likely to become the next Crypto Assets ETF.

Why is SOL receiving such widespread attention? Mainly because it ranks high in market capitalization and has strong market consensus. From a market capitalization perspective, SOL is indeed one of the most likely candidates in the Top 5 or even Top 10.

However, the biggest obstacle facing SOL is the regulatory qualification issue. In June 2023, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) listed SOL as a security in two lawsuits. Being classified as a security means that it must comply with stricter regulatory requirements, which could affect ETF approvals.

In simple terms, the SEC categorizes Crypto Assets into ordinary assets and special assets ( securities ). Ordinary assets are more likely to be included in an ETF, while special assets need to meet more conditions. The SEC is unlikely to change its qualitative assessment of SOL in the short term, so the possibility of SOL ETF being approved in the short term is low.

The 18 tokens also classified as securities by the SEC include BNB, ADA, MATIC, and they face similar regulatory obstacles.

However, the recently passed FIT21 bill has brought new hope to the industry. The bill clarifies the classification of digital assets and regulatory bodies:

• Decentralized tokens are classified as digital commodities, regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
• Non-decentralized tokens are classified as securities and regulated by the SEC.

The bill also defines decentralization, including the absence of a single entity that can control the network, as well as no entity owning more than 20% of the assets or voting rights.

This bill improves the regulatory framework for digital assets and paves the way for the approval of more ETFs. However, the bill still requires approval from the Senate and the President's signature to take effect.

Overall, although SOL is currently facing regulatory hurdles, it still has great potential as an ETF candidate in the long term. The likelihood of approval in the next year or two is low, but with the advancement of the FIT21 Act and the clarification of the regulatory framework, the chances of SOL ETF being approved within 3-5 years are still quite high.

Of course, regulatory attitudes may change over time. Tokens that are currently classified as securities may be reclassified in the future. SOL, as a leading project by market capitalization and with an active community, remains one of the most likely Crypto Assets to gain ETF approval. The specific timeline will depend on the evolution of regulatory policies.