What impact does Musk's establishment of the "American Party" have on the crypto market?

Musk has publicly criticized the SEC's "over-regulation" of encryption multiple times, advocating for "21st century rules to govern 21st century technology." If the "American Party" secures key positions in the 2026 midterm elections, it may promote the following policies:

Simplify compliance processes: for example, allow banks to directly custody encryption, reducing the entry barrier for institutions.

Clarify the legal status of stablecoins: Continue the framework of the "Stablecoin Innovation Act" from the Trump administration and promote the issuance of compliant stablecoins by banks.

Exemption from small transaction tax: Referencing the proposal by Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, exempt crypto transactions under 300 dollars from tax to lower user participation costs.

The "American Party" advocates for reducing government spending and debt, but Trump's "big and beautiful" plan may still expand the deficit (3.3 trillion dollars in spending), exacerbating market concerns about the credit of the dollar. Historical experience shows that such policies drive funds toward decentralized assets like Bitcoin. For example:

After Trump's victory in 2024, Bitcoin skyrocketed from $50,000 to $77,000 within a week.

If the "American Party" strengthens its image of fiscal austerity, it may further consolidate Bitcoin's "safe-haven attribute."

The news of Musk announcing the establishment of a party has directly attracted attention from the crypto market, with Bitcoin fluctuating over 5% on July 5, and trading volume surging by 40%.

If the regulatory easing takes effect, institutions such as Grayscale may accelerate the approval of Bitcoin ETFs and other products. Referring to the activation effect of altcoins after the approval of the Ethereum ETF, SOL, DOGE, and others may benefit.

If Tesla and SpaceX, both owned by Musk, allocate part of their cash flow to encryption currencies (such as Bitcoin), it will create a demonstration effect. Previously, Tesla purchased $1.5 billion in Bitcoin in 2021, which led to a surge in the price of the currency.

Musk's control over the X platform (formerly Twitter) could make it a testing ground for Web3 social experiments, such as integrating NFTs or DAO governance.

2026 Midterm Election Results: If the "American Party" wins 2-3 Senate seats, it may substantially advance encryption-friendly legislation.

Federal Reserve monetary policy: If the "American Party" expands the deficit leading to a rebound in inflation, it may accelerate expectations for interest rate cuts, which would be beneficial for risk assets (including encryption currencies).

Musk's personal actions: for example, whether to increase his Bitcoin holdings, promote Tesla to accept encryption payments, etc.

Musk's establishment of the "American Party" may boost the crypto market in the short term through policy expectations and emotional speculation, but the long-term impact depends on the new party's actual policy implementation capabilities. If it successfully promotes regulatory easing and financial reforms, cryptocurrencies might become the "beneficiaries" of political and economic changes in the U.S.; conversely, if it becomes mired in a bipartisan struggle, the market may revert to being driven by technical factors. Friends need to closely monitor the dynamics of the 2026 elections and policy adjustments from regulators like the SEC.