The US election is approaching, and the global focus will be on it next week.

In the coming week, global attention will be focused on the U.S. elections. Starting from Tuesday, November 5th, the election results will be announced one after another, and the progress of these announcements will continue to impact asset prices during this period.

Timeline for the Announcement of the U.S. Election Results

Due to the differences in policies regarding ballot processing, counting rules, and mail-in ballots across states, there are discrepancies in the announcement of results. The overall election timeline is as follows:

1. Election Day: The Tuesday after the first Monday in November, when voters cast their ballots for the President and Vice President candidates.

2. Electoral College Voting: The United States uses the Electoral College system, with a total of 538 electoral votes. A candidate must receive at least 270 electoral votes to win.

3. Electoral College official voting: Held on the second Monday of December, officially electing the President and Vice President.

4. Congressional Certification: On January 6 of the following year, the new Congress convenes to officially tally the Electoral College votes.

5. Presidential Inauguration: On January 20, the elected President and Vice President take the oath of office, beginning their four-year term.

Key State Results Announcement Status

Some key states often announce results later:

1. California: Allows for a longer mail-in ballot receipt period, often one of the last states to report complete results nationwide.

2. Pennsylvania: Mail-in ballots are only processed on Election Day, which slows down the counting process. As a key swing state, the final results may be announced several days after Election Day.

3. Michigan and Wisconsin: Mail-in ballots are only processed on Election Day, and ballot processing usually cannot be completed until the evening of the following day.

4. Nevada: Allows mail-in ballots to arrive several days after the election day, results may be delayed by a few days.

5. North Carolina: Allows mail-in ballots to be received up to 9 days after Election Day, with results typically announced a week later.

The Importance of Congressional Elections

The results of the House of Representatives elections are equally important because they determine the implementation of the future fiscal policy of the United States. The House has the following main powers:

• Legislation: Drafting and voting on bills, completing legislative functions with the Senate.
• Fiscal Authority: All financial and tax bills must be initiated in the House of Representatives.
• Impeachment power: the ability to impeach the president or federal officials.

The distribution of the House of Representatives determines the difficulty for the president to implement economic policies. House elections are held every two years, coinciding with the presidential election in election years. Generally, due to the smaller size of House districts and the quicker counting of ballots, results may be announced earlier than those of the presidential election.

The Subsequent Impact of Election Results

There are significant differences in the economic policies of the two party candidates:

Democratic Senator Harris advocates for "opportunity economics," increasing government investment and raising taxes to enhance the income levels of middle-class families in housing, healthcare, education, and daily necessities. The market generally expects this to increase the government's fiscal burden, which may further undermine the credibility of the dollar. At the same time, large-scale fiscal spending could push up inflation, although the government may take coercive measures to control the prices of daily necessities.

The economic policies of Republican Trump mainly include: low domestic tax rates and high tariffs on foreign goods; reducing the exchange rate of the dollar against major manufacturing countries through means such as interest rate cuts; opposing the new energy industry and advocating for the revival of the traditional energy industry. These policies may bring about higher inflationary pressures. There are signs that Trump may consider using Bitcoin to alleviate these issues, as he has expressed concern about "the U.S. Bitcoin production capacity" multiple times.

Potential Impact on the Cryptocurrency Market

If Harris is elected, the "Trump trade" may quickly collapse, and the BTC price may temporarily adjust, but it could then re-enter a phase of fluctuating upward movement. Other similar security-type crypto assets may experience a bull market due to the wealth effect, resembling the broad rise seen after the pandemic stimulus in 2021.

If Trump is elected, the price of BTC may experience profit-taking in the short term, but it could quickly open an upward channel in the following cycle. The overall cryptocurrency market may find it difficult to enter a comprehensive bull market, more likely experiencing wealth effects spilling over from the appreciation of BTC, with funds rotating between multiple hot sectors, resembling the market trend after the end of 2023.

If the elected party becomes a "minority president", the situation may become more complicated. It is necessary to continuously follow the game between the two parties regarding economic policies; any proposed bill may undergo intense market competition, and at that time, price volatility may increase significantly.