Analysis: Institutional BTC adoption is a ‘cyclical wave’, not a linear increase, says Saphira Group’s Dyment

• Fund manager Jeff Dyment argues fears of fading institutional Bitcoin demand are overblown and miss the “bigger picture.”
• Institutional BTC buying is a “cyclical wave,” not a straight line, with 51 new corporate treasuries in H1 2025 alone.
• Options market data shows whales are building upside exposure, buying September $130K BTC calls.

In a market often fixated on short-term price swings, fund manager Jeff Dyment of Saphira Group is urging investors to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.

His thesis is simple yet powerful: recent data points suggesting that institutional Bitcoin buying is losing steam are missing the forest for the trees.

In a note shared with CoinDesk, Dyment argues that fears of dwindling institutional demand for Bitcoin are largely overblown, rooted in what he sees as narrow, short-term snapshots of the market.

He acknowledges the recent cooling in ETF and corporate purchases – for instance, Michael Saylor’s Strategy acquired just 16,000 BTC last month, a sharp decrease from its 171,000 BTC haul in December.

However, Dyment insists this is not a sign of decline, but rather a natural ebb in what he describes as a “cyclical wave” of institutional adoption.

“Institutional flows often come in waves rather than a steady linear increase,” Dyment wrote.

Short-term demand fluctuations in the spot market are minor ripples on what is, in fact, a rising tide of institutional engagement.

To support his argument, Dyment points to compelling data.

In the first half of 2025 alone, 51 new corporate Bitcoin treasuries were established, a figure equal to the total number established from 2018 to 2022 combined.

This represents a staggering 375% year-over-year increase in corporate Bitcoin buying.

Publicly traded companies now collectively hold 848,902 BTC, which accounts for approximately 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.

In the second quarter of 2025 alone, these companies added 131,000 BTC to their balance sheets.

The ETF factor: a tsunami of regulated capital

Dyment also highlights the explosive growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs as further, undeniable evidence of deepening institutional participation.

BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which has already become the largest in the world, now holds an incredible 699,000 BTC, representing more than 3.3% of the total supply, after becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history.

Collectively, U.S. spot ETFs have captured approximately 1.25 million BTC, or roughly 6% of the total supply, in just 18 months since their launch, Dyment points out in his note.

This rapid accumulation by regulated investment vehicles underscores a structural shift in how capital is engaging with Bitcoin.

Whales Position for Upside as Market Awaits a Spark

Dyment’s thesis finds echoes in the derivatives market. In a recent note from QCP Capital, the Singapore-based fund observed that large “whale” investors are continuing to build exposure to upside risk.

They are reportedly snapping up September $130,000 BTC call options and holding significant positions in 115,000/140,000 call spreads, all bets on a future price increase.

“Vols remain pinned near historical lows, but a decisive breach of the $110K resistance could spark a renewed volatility bid,” QCP wrote in a Monday note.

So, while market bears may point to stagnant spot flows and the nearly empty mempool (the queue of unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions) as signs of market fatigue, Dyment argues that these are merely surface-level ripples.

Underneath, he contends, the institutional tide is rising. Wall Street, with its trillions upon trillions of dollars in regulated capital, is hungry for crypto exposure. It’s just not going to arrive all at once in a straight line.

Broader market movements provide context

The aformentioned analysis comes amidst a backdrop of volatile but resilient price action for Bitcoin and mixed signals from traditional markets.

• BTC: Bitcoin fell 1.02% from July 6 at 22:00 to July 7 at 21:00, testing key support at $107,519.64 amid heavy selling, before staging a V-shaped recovery off $107,800. On-chain data showed strong support clusters at $106,738 and $98,566 held by 1.68 million addresses, according to CoinDesk Research’s technical analysis bot.
• ETH: Ethereum rose 1.67% amid volatile trading, swinging nearly 3% between $2,529 and $2,604, as support at $2,530 held firm. Institutional inflows topped $1.1 billion, and above-average volume marked both the surge and subsequent sell-off.
• Gold: Gold dipped on a stronger dollar but rebounded on tariff-driven safe-haven demand, with central bank buying and de-dollarization fueling forecasts of a rally toward $4,000.
• S&P 500: Stocks fell on Monday as President Trump announced new tariffs on imports from seven countries, sending the S&P 500 down 0.79% to 6,229.98.
• Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets mostly rose despite President Trump announcing steep U.S. tariffs on 14 trading partners, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 up 0.36% as duties of up to 40% were outlined for countries including South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand.

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