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Analysis: Institutional BTC adoption is a ‘cyclical wave’, not a linear increase, says Saphira Group’s Dyment
In a market often fixated on short-term price swings, fund manager Jeff Dyment of Saphira Group is urging investors to take a step back and look at the bigger picture.
His thesis is simple yet powerful: recent data points suggesting that institutional Bitcoin buying is losing steam are missing the forest for the trees.
In a note shared with CoinDesk, Dyment argues that fears of dwindling institutional demand for Bitcoin are largely overblown, rooted in what he sees as narrow, short-term snapshots of the market.
He acknowledges the recent cooling in ETF and corporate purchases – for instance, Michael Saylor’s Strategy acquired just 16,000 BTC last month, a sharp decrease from its 171,000 BTC haul in December.
However, Dyment insists this is not a sign of decline, but rather a natural ebb in what he describes as a “cyclical wave” of institutional adoption.
“Institutional flows often come in waves rather than a steady linear increase,” Dyment wrote.
To support his argument, Dyment points to compelling data.
In the first half of 2025 alone, 51 new corporate Bitcoin treasuries were established, a figure equal to the total number established from 2018 to 2022 combined.
This represents a staggering 375% year-over-year increase in corporate Bitcoin buying.
Publicly traded companies now collectively hold 848,902 BTC, which accounts for approximately 4% of Bitcoin’s total supply.
In the second quarter of 2025 alone, these companies added 131,000 BTC to their balance sheets.
The ETF factor: a tsunami of regulated capital
Dyment also highlights the explosive growth of spot Bitcoin ETFs as further, undeniable evidence of deepening institutional participation.
BlackRock’s IBIT fund, which has already become the largest in the world, now holds an incredible 699,000 BTC, representing more than 3.3% of the total supply, after becoming the fastest-growing ETF in history.
Collectively, U.S. spot ETFs have captured approximately 1.25 million BTC, or roughly 6% of the total supply, in just 18 months since their launch, Dyment points out in his note.
This rapid accumulation by regulated investment vehicles underscores a structural shift in how capital is engaging with Bitcoin.
Whales Position for Upside as Market Awaits a Spark
Dyment’s thesis finds echoes in the derivatives market. In a recent note from QCP Capital, the Singapore-based fund observed that large “whale” investors are continuing to build exposure to upside risk.
They are reportedly snapping up September $130,000 BTC call options and holding significant positions in 115,000/140,000 call spreads, all bets on a future price increase.
“Vols remain pinned near historical lows, but a decisive breach of the $110K resistance could spark a renewed volatility bid,” QCP wrote in a Monday note.
So, while market bears may point to stagnant spot flows and the nearly empty mempool (the queue of unconfirmed Bitcoin transactions) as signs of market fatigue, Dyment argues that these are merely surface-level ripples.
Underneath, he contends, the institutional tide is rising. Wall Street, with its trillions upon trillions of dollars in regulated capital, is hungry for crypto exposure. It’s just not going to arrive all at once in a straight line.
Broader market movements provide context
The aformentioned analysis comes amidst a backdrop of volatile but resilient price action for Bitcoin and mixed signals from traditional markets.
The post Analysis: Institutional BTC adoption is a ‘cyclical wave’, not a linear increase, says Saphira Group’s Dyment appeared first on CoinJournal.