Bitcoin to Reach $250,000? Arthur Hayes Discusses Trump's Economic Policy and the Outlook for the Crypto Market

In a recent podcast episode, Arthur Hayes shared his bold predictions about the future of the crypto market. He believes that with the possible new government coming into power, the loose monetary policy in the United States will lead to a devaluation of the dollar, which in turn will drive up the prices of Bitcoin and other crypto assets. He also discussed global inflation, the monetary policies of various countries, and how to enable crypto assets like Bitcoin and meme coins to benefit. He emphasized that investors need to remain vigilant during a bull market to avoid ignoring market risks due to greed. Furthermore, he looked ahead to future market trends and predicted that Bitcoin could reach a milestone of $250,000 by 2025.

The new government's economic policy will lead to the depreciation of the dollar and benefit Bitcoin.

Arthur believes that the market expects the new government to print a large amount of money in the United States. One of their campaign platforms is to attract manufacturing and industrial companies back to the United States through a weak dollar policy. Then, they will inject a large amount of funds through bank credit, increasing the amount of credit in the American economy to boost production and raise wage levels. All of this will lead to inflation.

The ultimate losers are those who save in dollars or hold government bonds. Those who have assets with a fixed supply, like Bitcoin, will perform exceptionally well. Currently, Bitcoin is clearly leading. This indicates that if a new government comes to power, their plans are already quite clear – to weaken the dollar, stimulate the market with credit, and get people back to work to restore America's productive capacity.

Global economic policies will drive inflation up and benefit crypto assets

Arthur pointed out that, essentially, every country is now pursuing a "national first" policy. The United States has proposed "America First," while China hopes to bring prosperity back to its rural areas or low-income groups through its "common prosperity" plan. Japan is experiencing a capital repatriation, which will boost its economy, but it also requires more credit to prevent bank bankruptcies. Europe, on the other hand, has cut off cheap energy from Russia and turned to importing expensive energy, which has led to its own difficulties.

Every country is striving to take care of its own people, which means restoring local industries and increasing demand for goods. This trend will drive inflation up globally, further suppressing the long-term outlook for bond yields.

In such an environment, cryptocurrencies will perform well. Although the policies of various countries seem different, they are all pursuing the same goal, which is to prioritize the needs of their citizens. This requires an increase in internal credit distribution and an expansion of supply to support production and create job opportunities for people. This global trend is a huge benefit for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.

The rise of Bitcoin may drive other crypto assets.

Arthur believes that from the perspective of retail investors, when the price of Bitcoin rises, the most important asset for everyone is Bitcoin. As Bitcoin wealth increases, investors will not return to fiat currency, but will seek to invest in other encryption assets that have even greater increases than Bitcoin.

These assets include meme coins, new Layer 1 blockchains, Layer 2 projects, NFTs, and the gaming sector. Bitcoin leads the market, and then funds gradually flow to other categories of assets. Because ultimately, the goal is to earn more encryption, not to exchange it back for fiat currency.

The rapid rise of meme coins showcases the responsiveness of global culture.

Arthur stated that the meme coin phenomenon is both interesting and reflective of reality. It shows how we quickly react to hot topics in global culture and make them interesting through meme coins. For example, a meme coin went from zero to a market value of 2 billion USD in just about nine days, solely due to a hot event.

This phenomenon may also reflect dissatisfaction with certain government policies, such as inflation policies. Meme coins have become a rapidly spreading attention market.

Advice for Newcomers: Stay Rational and Cash Out in a Timely Manner during a Bull Market

Arthur reminds us that no one can profit from the market forever. The key is how to preserve these gains. For example, the meme coins held now might not exist in a month or two, and the market value could drop from $200 million to $5 million, with such drastic changes.

Statistics show that only about 0.01% of meme coins have a market value exceeding $500 million, and most traders end up losing money. Many see huge profits on paper; however, they always hold onto the sentiment of "I can earn more," which ultimately leads to the loss of the wealth they already have.

Therefore, if you earn some money that can change your fate, you should take out a portion to cash out. The market will always have opportunities to come back. It is very important to remain rational.

Potential Risks in the Market

Arthur believes that the market has not yet reached the "overheating" stage. However, as traditional financial capital enters, investment oversupply may occur in certain areas, which is where investors need to be vigilant to avoid a "shuffle" when market prices become disconnected from reality.

Bitcoin Price Predictions for the End of 2023 and 2025

Arthur predicts that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of this year, and may reach $250,000 by the end of 2025.