Stablecoin Yields Strategy: Potential outsized returns on $sUSDf YT?

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1. Falcon’s sUSDf on Pendle
$sUSDf generates yield from a mix of sources, including funding rate arbitrage, cross-exchange arbitrage and LPs. 

Now, this yield can be traded on Pendle by splitting into components:

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2. Key Opportunity: Falcon Miles not (Fully) Priced In
YT sUSDf is trading at an implied APY of 13.3%, while underlying APY is at 9.8%. The implied and underlying APY are trading relatively close, meaning:

→ Speculative upside from Falcon Miles has yet to be fully priced in 

Reasonable Assumption: sUSDf YT and LP holders are to receive 36x Falcon Miles while the rest are likely to receive 30-40x Falcon Miles multiplier. As Falcon Finance is still in the early adopters phase, which means higher multipliers for early movers. 

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3. How to Position
A $10,000 position in sUSDf can potentially generate:
→ $200 in base yield over ~80 days (9.8% APY)
→ Plus free exposure to 36x Falcon Miles per YT

The big unknown is how much each Falcon Mile will be worth, especially since the total supply of Miles hasn’t been disclosed.

One speculative case: 
• Assume Falcon ends Season 1 with 6 trillion Miles (similar to Resolv) → Biggest assumption for now
• Allocates 5% of supply to airdrop
• $200m FDV TGE

Price per Falcon Mile = (200m x 5%) / 6T Miles = $0.00000167

And since YT is priced without any premium for these points, this upside is effectively being given away for free.

Risks: 
1) Inflationary points dilutes any meaningful YT gains 
2) Stablecoin risks like depegging due to collaterization mechanism / reserves / hacks → Team has addressed latest FUDs recently but would still suggest to assess risk

Disclosure: I hold YT-sUSDf, Calculations are best case approximations. DYOR.