BTC has reached 70,000, will it rise to 100,000?

It is now July 9, 2024, and many believe that BTC has reached the milestone of $70,000, with the target of $100,000 just around the corner. But is it really that simple? Let's analyze the core of BTC's value and the various factors that influence its price.

The Source of BTC's Value

As the big brother of the cryptocurrency market, where does the value of BTC come from? Is it because it is the oldest digital currency? Or is it due to the fixed total supply of 21 million? Or is it the technological security brought by decentralization? Many people might say it is global consensus. But where does this consensus come from?

Compared to competitors like ETH and SOL, BTC does not have an advantage in terms of ecological applications and user numbers. So, what allows BTC to maintain its position at the top of the cryptocurrency market for a long time? Perhaps, the answer lies in a higher dimension.

Analysis of Market Bullish Factors

In 2024, many positive news about BTC are circulating in the market:

• BTC halving
• BTC and ETH spot ETFs are open
• The crypto market is being accepted by mainstream finance, with regulation gradually intervening.
• US interest rate cut
• The US presidential election, a crypto-friendly candidate may be elected

However, can these factors really drive the BTC price to rise?

The halving has occurred, but it has not brought about the expected rise. Although the opening of ETFs has brought new funds to the market, it may only have diverted some funds from the traditional financial market, and does not mean a large influx of new investments.

The factors such as regulatory openness, U.S. interest rate cuts, and presidential elections can actually be understood from a more macro perspective. All these are closely related to the changes in U.S. economic policy and the global financial landscape.

The Support Logic Behind Prices

The rise and fall of BTC prices actually reflect a more complex global economic landscape. Changes in the dominance of the US dollar, issues with US debt, geopolitical conflicts, and more are all affecting the price trend of BTC.

BTC, as a decentralized digital asset, is still somewhat tied to the value of the US dollar. Behind the global consensus may be the games of major powers. BTC does not need to have the most ecosystems and users; it only needs to ensure that the beneficiaries on the profit chain are the system itself and the people operating the system.

How far is $100,000?

Returning to the initial question: Can BTC reach $100,000? The answer is not simple. It not only depends on the outcome of the U.S. elections in November but also on the new government's attitude towards cryptocurrencies. Even if a pro-crypto candidate is elected, it is uncertain whether BTC can stabilize at $70,000 in the short term, let alone $100,000.

On the road to BTC reaching 100,000 USD, there are still many obstacles: the situation in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the transformation of the petrodollar system, and the US debt issue, among others. These global economic and political factors will have a profound impact on the price of BTC.

Whether BTC can reach 100,000 USD may not be the focus of our attention. What is more important is to understand the operational logic behind the cryptocurrency market and the role it plays in the global financial system. For investors, maintaining rationality and a long-term perspective is the key to surviving in this uncertain market.