📍Intrerest Rate có đang thực sự cao?

📌 Trump is continuously calling for the Fed to lower interest rates soon, but is the current interest rate really too high? From a historical perspective and market conditions, the answer is not necessarily. Real interest rates are still relatively low compared to periods like 2006, and have not exceeded the lows of many decades when compared to the 10y us bond yield. The Fed Chicago's NFCI financial conditions index is still at -0.50, indicating that monetary policy is still even loose.

📌 Because the economy has been too addicted to cheap money since 2008, the current interest rate may still be too high compared to actual tolerance, especially when the debt burden weighs heavily on both businesses and households. The Fed's reluctance to quickly lower interest rates may not necessarily be the wrong decision ( because Powell made a mistake once when QE was excessive in 2020 and now he does not want to repeat that ).

📌 Although the current interest rates are not overwhelming on the historical chart, they are suffocating in terms of psychology and the structure of an economy that has been accustomed to living in an environment of cheap money. And this will put pressure on the future.