Solana Spot ETF is about to face regulatory scrutiny and may be approved in July.

Recently, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) required several institutions to resubmit revised S-1 documents for the Solana Spot ETF within 7 days, mainly involving wording corrections for "physical redemption mechanism" and "staking terms". This move is seen by the market as a clear signal of a shift in regulatory attitude, and the price of SOL subsequently rose, breaking through $165 at one point, with a daily increase of 5%.

Market sentiment is rapidly heating up, and investors generally believe that Solana may become the third crypto asset to be included in a Spot ETF after Bitcoin and Ethereum. As the ETF trading structure gradually becomes clearer and regulatory signals improve, investors' focus has shifted from "whether it can pass" to "when it will pass" and "who will launch it."

The SEC's request for applicants to clarify the details of the staking mechanism in the S-1 filing has been widely interpreted as the regulatory agency no longer avoiding the staking issue, but rather attempting to incorporate PoS logic into the regulatory framework. It is worth noting that the SEC has committed to completing review feedback within 30 days of the S-1 filing submission, which means that the Solana Spot ETF could be approved as early as mid-July.

Industry insiders expect that the Solana ETF is likely to receive final approval within the next three to five weeks. Bloomberg Industry Research analyst James Seyffart stated that approval is expected to be granted this year, potentially as early as July. Another analyst, Eric Balchunas, raised the likelihood of the SOL ETF approval from 70% to 90%.

The institutions that have currently submitted applications for the Solana ETF include seven asset management companies: VanEck, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise, Canary Capital, Franklin Templeton, and Fidelity. Among them, Grayscale plans to convert its existing SOL trust product into a Spot ETF.

Referring to the experience of Bitcoin ETFs, the price of SOL may exhibit a trend of rising, then falling, followed by a significant increase. However, the example of Ethereum ETFs shows that ETF approval does not necessarily lead to a significant price increase. According to the GSR model, if the capital inflow for SOL ETF is 5% of that of BTC ETF, its price may rise from the current $160 to around $500; in a more optimistic scenario, if the capital inflow reaches 14%, the price may exceed $800.

However, the selling pressure risk faced by SOL cannot be ignored. Early investors have a lower cost, and the launch of the ETF may become a node for unlocking exits. In addition, the staking ratio of SOL has exceeded 65%, and whether the ETF will allow staking of shares remains uncertain. If staking rewards are not included in the ETF structure, the SOL in the Spot ETF may become less attractive due to the lack of participation in on-chain returns.

Overall, the Solana Spot ETF is expected to receive formal approval in the next 2 to 3 weeks, becoming another mainstream entry channel following Bitcoin and Ethereum. In the short term, the price of SOL may be further driven by funding expectations, hitting the $200-$300 range. In the medium term, whether it can replicate the explosive growth of Bitcoin will depend on whether the ETF's structural design can address staking issues, as well as whether the on-chain ecosystem can accommodate the new traffic and trading demands.

At the juncture where crypto assets move towards compliance and the convergence with mainstream finance, the Solana ETF is not just a product, but a collective stress test of public chain competition, PoS consensus mechanism, and DeFi applications.