PENGU USDT price movement and 2025 price prediction: Is $0.045 possible?

According to Gate market data, as of July 16, 2025, PENGU (Pudgy Penguins ecological Token) is priced at $0.03059, with a rise of 8.21% in the past 24 hours, a pump of up to 106.39% in the past 7 days, and a cumulative surge of 215.67% within 30 days. This strong performance has pushed its market capitalization to over $1.7 billion, ranking it 6th in the Meme coin leaderboard, surpassing established projects like BONK. This article will provide a depth analysis of PENGU price movement and predictions for 2025, combining technical aspects and ecological progress.

##Recent Strong Performance and Core Driving Factors

The current rise of PENGU is driven by multiple favorable factors, creating a resonance between technical and fundamental aspects:

1. Bitcoin breaks the top leading: At the beginning of July, Bitcoin broke through its historical high, market risk appetite surged, and funds flowed into the Meme sector. PENGU started from a low of 0.0143 USD on July 7, with a weekly rise of over 50%.
2. ETF Application Catalyst: On July 10, the U.S. SEC confirmed the acceptance of the PENGU spot ETF application submitted by Canary Capital. This ETF plans to allocate 80%-95% PENGU Tokens and 5%-15% Pudgy Penguins NFTs. After the news was announced, PENGU surged 29% within 24 hours.
3. Ecological expansion acceleration:

• Reached NFT character licensing cooperation with three Asian trendy brands to open up sales channels for physical goods.
• Launch the "Own to Participate" mechanism, allowing token holders to share in the profits of physical goods.
• Launch on eToro exchange to expand retail user access

##Technical Breakthroughs and Key Price Ranges

From a technical structure perspective, PENGU has established an upward trend at the daily and weekly levels:

• Pattern Breakthrough: Successfully breaking free from the downward trend line pressure since March, forming an "ascending triangle" and "cup and handle" breakout, with a target pointing to 0.044 USD.
• Key price level:
  • Support levels: 0.0175 USD (liquidity cluster area), 0.025 USD (previous resistance turned support)
  • Resistance levels: $0.032 (Fibonacci 38.2%), $0.044-0.045 (Fibonacci 61.8% and wave theory target)
• Trading signals:
  • RSI is at 69, short-term overbought but not overheated.
  • MACD continues to expand, super trend indicator turns bullish
• Daily trading volume reaches 14.6 million, surpassing Bitcoin and Ethereum, demonstrating extremely high on-chain activity.

##2025 Price Prediction: Three Scenario Outlook

Based on the current technological structure and ecological development, the market presents a tiered expectation for the 2025 target of PENGU:

Basic Scenario (0.022-0.025 USD):

• Fill the gap of 0.0169-0.025 USD formed by the crash in February
• Need to maintain support above 0.0154 dollars

Neutral scenario (0.035-0.045 USD):

• After breaking 0.0254 USD (Fibonacci 50%), challenge the previous high
• If the ETF is approved, it may drive a rise of +180%

Optimistic scenario ($0.060):

• Reached 0.060 USD in August, potential rise of +96% compared to the current price.
• Must meet: ETF approval, successful launch of the game "Pudgy Party", Bitcoin maintains a bull market

##Core Growth Catalyst

The three engines supporting the rise in PENGU value have been activated:

1. ETF narrative scarcity: As the first ETF target combining Memecoin + NFT, approval will attract incremental funds. The current market estimates the approval probability at 40%, and if approved, it could trigger a 900% rise.
2. IP commercialization implementation:

• Retail channels such as Walmart expand physical toy sales
• Character IP authorization to the gaming and virtual idol fields (expected to be announced in Q4)

3. On-chain economic closed loop:

• Staking annual yield 7%-11% locked liquidity
• NFT holders enjoy a share of product sales, increasing Token demand

##Risk Warning and Challenges

Investors should be wary of three potential reversal signals:

1. Technical pullback pressure:

• RSI overbought combined with strong resistance zone at 0.030-0.033 USD
• The short ratio in the derivatives market has increased (financing rates turned negative)

2. Regulatory uncertainty:

• The SEC's stance on the approval of Memecoin-like ETFs is unclear (decision window period is about 60 days)
• Global compliance disputes regarding NFT tokenized assets

3. Market fluctuation transmission:

• If Bitcoin drops below 100,000 USD, PENGU may pull back to 0.008-0.01 USD
• The cooling of the NFT market may lead to a shrinkage of liquidity

##Conclusion: Layout Suggestions and Key Observations

Currently, PENGU is in the early stage of establishing a bull market structure, with 0.025-0.028 USD being the dividing line for bulls and bears. Investors can adopt a two-stage strategy:

• Short term (Q3):
  • Pullback to the support level of 0.0175 USD for accumulation
  • Break through 0.033 USD to increase position, target 0.045 USD
• Mid to long term (end of 2025):
  • Track the progress of ETF approvals (mid-August is a key window)
  • Monitor user data for the "Pudgy Party" game (expected to launch in Q4)

If both the ecological expansion and the ETF narrative come to fruition, PENGU is expected to reach $0.045 by the end of 2025, providing a 50% upward potential from the current price, becoming one of the few assets in the Meme sector that combines IP value and on-chain utility.

The explosion of PENGU is by no means accidental. It is building a full-cycle IP economic model that spans from NFT to physical goods to games, which is rare in the Meme coin space.