Some people feel that this market cycle has introduced many new elements, such as ETFs, large institutions entering the market, geopolitical influences, etc., and they begin to doubt whether the old cycle theory is outdated, thinking that history no longer repeats itself. Some even believe that from now on, the market will just keep rising, with the bull run never ending.

If you have this kind of thinking, it is actually not wrong, then it's simple—if you are optimistic in the long term, just keep buying and holding, investing regularly until the end of time.
But I personally tend to think that the cycle mechanism is still effective, the core reason being that the halving mechanism is still in place, and the operating logic of Bitcoin has not changed. Therefore, my operations are still centered around the cycle.
I mainly focus on spot trading, so I will share my judgment from the perspective of spot trading. Based on historical cycles, the peak is likely to occur in the fourth quarter of this year. It's hard to say which month, but we need to be particularly cautious before the end of the year.
The current average price is around 118,000, which isn't too low actually. At this stage, blindly adding positions doesn't make much sense. If there is a chance to drop back below 100,000 later, I will consider adding a bit more as a long-term allocation.
If you entered the market early last year, for example, if you started buying at the beginning of 2023, then it should be relatively easy now. Even if you don't sell, it's fine, as the cost is low enough. But if your cost is above 75,000, I personally suggest considering selling in batches, as locking in profits is what truly matters.
The next round of bear market lows is expected to be between 55,000 and 65,000, based on past trends and the rainbow chart predictions. Of course, there are institutions predicting that this round can rise to 200,000 or 250,000, and I do not rule out this possibility. If you believe it, then make your plans according to this expectation.
Ultimately, the long-term story of Bitcoin is indeed grand, but when it comes to ordinary people, the investment aspect ultimately needs to return to "can it improve real life?" Not everyone can hold on firmly for several years; most people have life pressures.
So my own plan is that if it rises to around 150,000, I will sell half; those who seek stability can choose to completely liquidate. After selling, don't think about chasing the high again; just patiently wait for the next opportunity. I believe that considering gradually re-investing in spot in the third quarter of next year is a relatively safe rhythm. #打榜优质内容#