Multiple Factors for the Prosperity of the Sui Ecosystem: From News to on-chain Data

Recently, the Sui ecosystem has experienced a remarkable bullish trend, with its governance token SUI rising over 75% within a week, far exceeding the overall market performance during the same period. This phenomenon is driven by complex factors, including speculation fueled by market rumors, significant changes in capital flows, and continuous improvements in the ecosystem's fundamentals. This article will delve into the capital trends behind SUI's recent surge, key news catalysts, on-chain data performance, and potential risks, providing a comprehensive interpretation of the logic behind this ecological prosperity.

Capital Flow Analysis: Influx of Hot Money into Exchanges, Surge in Contract Positions

From the on-chain fund flow in recent months, there has been no significant change in Sui's funds, with a net outflow of 32 million USD over the past three months, which is relatively small. The changes in on-chain funds over the past month and the past week are even more negligible, not even making it into the top twenty among public chains.

However, the flow of funds in the exchange has shown a clear trend of capital inflow into the Sui ecosystem. Data shows that in the past seven days, the spot capital inflow of SUI reached 62.86 million USD, ranking fourth among all cryptocurrencies, behind only USDT, ETH, and FUSD. In the contract capital inflow ranking, several ecological tokens of the Sui network, such as WAL, MEMEFI, CETUS, etc., have also entered the top ten, reflecting the active capital dynamics of the Sui ecosystem.

The contract holdings of the SUI token have significantly increased since April 21, jumping from $700 million to $1.419 billion within a week, nearing the historical high of $1.5 billion.

Most tokens in the Sui ecosystem have also seen significant increases in the past week. According to statistics, 35 tokens have risen more than 100% in the past week, accounting for 20% of the Sui ecosystem projects, and 37.5% of the tokens have increased more than 50%, showing a flourishing trend.

From a funding perspective, this increase is a comprehensive collective surge for the Sui ecosystem. Although most projects have no actual positive developments, the price performance is quite remarkable.

Multiple positive factors boost market sentiment

On April 21, mainstream tokens began to rebound in sync, and Sui's initial rebound also started with the market's rhythm, followed by a series of positive news. These news items could be the driving factors behind Sui's surge, or they could be part of market hype accompanying the price increase.

Main benefits include:

1. Pokémon Cooperation Rumors: Originating from the update of the privacy policy in the Pokémon HOME application, listing Parasol Technologies, acquired by the Sui development team, as an authorized developer. The market speculates that Pokémon may integrate the IP into the Sui on-chain.

2. xMoney/xPortal Collaboration: Sui announces a partnership with these two platforms to launch the Sui branded virtual Mastercard in Europe, integrated within the xPortal app, supporting payments in cryptocurrencies such as SUI.

3. ETF-related news: The news that 21Shares previously established a "SUI ETF" statutory trust entity has been brought back into focus.

4. Other progress: including the Athens Stock Exchange Group building an on-chain fundraising platform on Sui, Nautilus bringing verifiable off-chain privacy solutions to Sui, and Canary Capital submitting a SUI ETF application.

These developments cover multiple areas such as Web3 gaming, privacy, and development environments, forming an overall positive outlook, which is different from the previous single message triggered by Sui that led to an explosion.

Surge in DEX Trading Volume and Increase in Network Activity

Since April, the DEX trading volume on the Sui network has remained high, reaching a historical peak of $998 million on March 29, and subsequently surpassing $400 million in daily trading volume for several days. The leading DEX in the ecosystem, Cetus Protocol, has driven the growth of the entire ecosystem, with its trading volume increasing by 84.5% in the past week, and the token CETUS also approaching a doubling.

Another important contributor, Kriya, contributed $780 million in trading volume on March 29, an increase of more than 100 times compared to the previous day. This phenomenon may be related to the airdrop of Walrus, which had a trading volume of $380 million on the day of the airdrop, becoming one of the main reasons for the recent increase in trading volume on the Sui network.

Developer activity is also an important factor in the growth of the Sui network. Starting from December 2024, the code submission frequency of the Sui network reached a peak, maintaining over 500 submissions per week, significantly higher than competitors like Solana and Aptos.

Potential Risks and Future Challenges

Despite the high market sentiment, there are still several risk points worth paying attention to:

1. Token Unlock Pressure: Continuous token unlocks of SUI may lead to ongoing selling pressure, with tens of millions of tokens released each week.

2. Unbalanced ecosystem structure: The rise of the Sui ecosystem is primarily led by DEX or infrastructure-type projects, while MEME tokens or application/game-type projects have not yet performed prominently. Tokens with a market capitalization of over 10 million are still dominated by early-stage projects.

3. Lack of "blockbuster" applications: Although infrastructure for decentralized storage, DeFi, gaming, and other themes has been built, there is still a lack of "viral" applications that can attract a large number of users.

In summary, the recent surge of SUI tokens and its ecosystem is the result of the market's speculative enthusiasm, influx of funds, expectations in the contract market, and progress in fundamentals. However, while focusing on price performance, one must also be wary of the selling pressure brought about by the continuous unlocking of tokens, and pay attention to whether the application ecosystem can further flourish and create truly attractive blockbuster applications for users. This will be key in determining whether SUI can convert its current popularity into long-term value.