ETH/USDT Perptual Futures 1 Hour Strategy Analysis (Based on July 31, 2025, 18:00 Data)

Core logic: high position oscillation and correction, focus on defensive high shorts.
Key Data Analysis
Price Dynamics:
Closed at 3858.42 (drop -0.08%), with a fluctuation of 0.37% (3851.20-3865.47), the upper shadow confirms strong resistance at 3865.
Support: 3851.20 (intraday low), 3830 (bull-bear divide); Resistance: 3865.47 (previous high), 3880 (psychological level).
Indicator Signal:
KDJ Death Cross Warning: K value (73.83) crosses below D value (82.27), and J value (56.96) accelerates downward, indicating a high probability of a pullback.
MACD momentum waning: the red bar shrinks to 8.27 (previous value > 10), DIF(20.00) flattens, bullish strength weakens.
Volume-Price Divergence: 71,921 trading volume > 5-day average volume 93,988, but the price has not reached a new high, indicating a buildup of selling pressure.
Low-risk strategy: high pressure level short, volume breakout stop loss
Short Entry Point (Main Strategy):
The price rebounded to the 3863-3865 range (previous high resistance) without a breakout on volume (VOLUME<80,000).
Target: 3851 → 3840 (1x amplitude).
Stop loss: 3870 (breakthrough previous high +0.15%).
Bullish Defense Point (Secondary Strategy):
Dropped sharply to 3838-3842 (Fibonacci 50%) and stabilized, with KDJ's J value < 50.
Target: 3855→3860.
Stop loss: 3830 (breaks key support level).
Breakthrough order conditions:
Volume breaks through 3870 (VOLUME>90,000), chase long to 3885;
Volume breaks below 3830, short to 3810.
Timeliness and Risk Control
Operation Window:
Short Position: 18:00-20:00 (Peak Selling Pressure at the End of European Market)
Long Position: 20:00-22:00 (Liquidity rebound in the early stage of the US market)
Holding time: 1-3 hours, take profit at 50% when profit reaches 20 USD.
Position Management: ≤3% of total funds, profit-loss ratio ≥3:1 (Stop loss $8, Take profit $24).
Strategic Advantage: Use KDJ death cross + volume-price divergence to enhance win rate; enter at absolute resistance level, risk is controllable.
Risk Warning: If the pressure of 3863 or support of 3838 is not reached before 22:00, the trade will be abandoned due to fluctuations in the US market.
Action Summary:
① Priority short position: Short at 3863 with a light position, stop loss at 3870, target 3851→3840.
② Alternative Long Position: Stabilize at 3840 for a short long, stop loss at 3830, target at 3855. If the key level breaks, follow the trend to chase the order. #BTCÐ Launchpool收益超3%# #成长值抽奖12期开启# #白宫加密报告发布#