Technical Analysis using the Matrix Method (2025/8/1) Sideways or if it breaks, down【Rakuten Wallet】 | CoinDesk JAPAN

In this article, we evaluate the Bitcoin market using six representative types of Technical Analysis: ① Pattern Analysis ② Moving Averages (9MA, 25MA) ③ Ichimoku Cloud ④ Bollinger Bands ⑤ MACD ⑥ RSI, and assess the market strength on a five-point scale (5 to 1: strong to weak), with the average used to evaluate the market's strength. I believe that fixed-point observation and objectivity are important in Technical Analysis. By combining multiple representative analysis methods, the aim is to eliminate subjectivity and enhance accuracy.

Summary

The overall rating is 2.5.

Last time I mentioned that I was unsure whether it would break out upwards or downwards, but this time there are signs suggesting a sideways movement, and the MACD and RSI indicate a downward divergence. Therefore, the conclusion is that it may either continue to move sideways or, if it breaks out, it will likely be down.

Please note that we are using the BTCJPY chart from the Rakuten Wallet margin trading platform. For the BTCUSD chart, please refer to this link (the link leads to TradingView's website).

Pattern Analysis

〈Daily〉〈4-Hour〉The rise has paused at the level of double the range that has continued since May, continuing range trading. It is supported at the half pullback level from the rise starting on July 10, forming a descending channel. This shape is called an ascending flag, suggesting that it will eventually break upward, but there is no clear direction in the short term.

Rating: 3

Moving Average

It seems like it’s only a matter of time before a dead cross occurs, but since it's sideways near the all-time high, it’s quite difficult to reach a dead cross.

Rating: 3

Ichimoku Kinko Hyo

Three roles continue to improve. If it remains flat like this, the lagging line is likely to hit the candlesticks sometime next week.

Rating: 4

Bollinger Bands

The upward trend pauses with a squeeze.

Rating: 3

MACD

Dead Cross, Divergence.

Rating: 1

RSI

50 units, but the divergence has become clearer than last time.

Rating: 1

Ratings

*This article is a reprint of the technical report of "Rakuten Wallet." This article provides information for reference in investment decisions, but it is not intended for stock recommendations or solicitation of investment activities. Additionally, Rakuten Wallet does not engage in investment solicitation or make definitive forecasts. *The information provided may contain future predictions; however, it reflects the personal views of the sender and does not guarantee its accuracy or reliability. We kindly ask that you make the final investment decisions on your own.

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