#打榜优质内容# Trump’s tariff bomb has exploded, the crypto market has shifted into "defensive mode," where will August go from here?

Currently, the overall market sentiment is in a stalemate, with the divergence between bulls and bears becoming increasingly evident. Funding sentiment has shifted to a wait-and-see approach, and ETF inflows have shown differentiation.

According to data, since July 21, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced continuous net outflows after a short-term concentrated net inflow, indicating that capital sentiment has begun to shift from positive to cautious. In contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs have not recorded significant outflows yet, but the inflow intensity is also weakening, and the market may hold a reserved attitude towards future policy expectations and market developments.

The market share of Bitcoin (BTC.D) has seen a phase rebound after a significant drop on July 21, while altcoins have gradually shown relative weakness, indicating that the strength dynamics between the sectors may begin to change.

On a macro level, Trump's tariffs have ignited a demand for safe havens.
Behind the market fluctuations, there are often signs of policy disturbances. The latest tariff executive order signed by U.S. President Trump last night decides to impose tariffs ranging from 15% to 41% on imported goods from 67 trading partners, raising the overall tax rate to the highest level in over a century. It is noteworthy that this policy will officially take effect on August 7, rather than the previously expected August 1, which is interpreted by the outside world as leaving a buffer window for multilateral negotiations.
At the same time, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 61.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 38.2%. The cumulative probability of a rate cut in the October meeting is also close to 60%. On July 30, the predicted probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September was 60.9%. The market's bet on the reduced probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut may further enhance the market's defensive sentiment.

Bitcoin has repeatedly attempted to break through key resistance levels without success, while Ethereum has been consolidating at high levels, struggling to break through. Investor sentiment is gradually turning conservative. With ETF flows diverging, whales frequently adjusting their positions, and constant disturbances from macro policies, the market is increasingly showing strong defensive sentiment as it approaches August. At such a sensitive moment, even slight fluctuations could trigger a new round of long-short battles. For investors, this may not be a window for active engagement, but rather a phase more suitable for stabilizing positions and patiently waiting for clearer directions.