The global financial market's fluctuation has intensified, and the Crypto Assets market is focusing on the support level.

Market Observation

Recently, the global financial market has experienced significant fluctuations due to the tense geopolitical situation. At the opening on Monday, the spot gold price once jumped to 3398 USD/ounce, the Nasdaq index futures fell by 0.9%, and WTI crude oil opened up by 3.7%. Although the market's initial reaction has been relatively restrained, analysts predict that if the situation remains tense, oil prices could soar to 130 USD per barrel. Against this backdrop, the movement of the US dollar has become the market focus. Some strategists believe that as the reasons for being bearish on the dollar gradually disappear, the dollar's rise could become the main trade this summer.

Recently, the global financial market has experienced severe fluctuations due to escalating geopolitical conflicts and the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates. Affected by geopolitical factors, gold prices surged 3.17% from June 11 to June 13, but faced a sell-off after the Federal Reserve's rate decision on June 18, falling approximately 0.6% by June 21. Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience, maintaining a price around $100,000, and has fluctuated only within the $100,000 to $110,000 range over the past 42 days. Some analysts believe that Bitcoin is gradually shifting from a speculative asset to a long-term investment, with its decentralized nature and limited supply becoming increasingly attractive amid global uncertainty, potentially becoming a new choice for investors as traditional safe-haven assets experience heightened fluctuations.

In an environment of increasing macro uncertainty, Bitcoin has rebounded above $100,000 after dropping below $99,000. Analysts point out that there are three possible scenarios for Bitcoin's future trend: maintaining the current range and reaching new highs; dropping below the current range to $95,000 and entering a bear market; or testing $95,000 before regaining $100,000 and further rising to the $114,000 to $116,000 range. Some analyses have provided specific resistance levels ($104,000, $106,000, $110,000) and support levels ($98,000, $95,000). Other analyses indicate that if Bitcoin drops below $100,000, it may test $95,000 and the bull market support zone again, with a pullback to the $95,000 bull market support zone being a normal phenomenon; during the 2017 bull market cycle, Bitcoin had approximately 8 instances of retracing to the bull market support zone. Additionally, some analyses suggest that Bitcoin is approaching the key support of the daily EMA-100 moving average, and if the daily closing price falls below $99,000, it may trigger a further decline to the $92,000 to $94,000 range.

In terms of Ethereum, analysis indicates that its performance remains weak, with prices constrained by a downward trend line, having broken below the previously significant support level of 2378 dollars, and presenting a bearish technical formation. Traders are advised to follow its performance at the resistance level of 2378 dollars; if it cannot break through, it may further decline to the demand levels of 2114 dollars or even 2036 dollars.

While mainstream cryptocurrencies are consolidating, the altcoin market is also relatively flat. A token named $BlackCoin has emerged on a certain blockchain, with its market story revolving around an AI-generated "dark web coin," claiming to be used for shadow markets and illegal trading networks, with a current market cap of about $1.4 million. Another token related to geopolitical hotspots is $Oil, positioning itself as "digital oil," with its concept stemming from a well-known economist's comments about digital oil being easier to create than real oil, currently with a market cap of about $2.9 million. Additionally, a fast-track project $ERC-69 has appeared on the Ethereum blockchain, launched via Klik, inspired by a fictional proposal created by AI, with its market cap once soaring to $11 million.

Key Data (As of June 23, 12:00 HKT)

• Bitcoin: $101,351 (Year-to-date +8.43%), daily spot trading volume $47.847 billion
• Ethereum: $2,239.19 (Year-to-date -32.84%), Daily spot trading volume is $24.261 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear)
• Average GAS: BTC: 0.52 sat/vB ETH: 0.44 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.9%, ETH 8.7%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.0825
• Sector fluctuations: SocialFi down 3.2%; DePIN sector down 3.1%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 184,598 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $642 million, including $232 million in BTC liquidations, $188 million in ETH liquidations, and $21.57 million in XRP liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (105463.14 USD), lower channel line (103374.76 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: Upper line of the channel (2462.37 USD), lower line of the channel (2413.61 USD)

ETF Flows (as of June 20)

• Bitcoin ETF: +6.3658 million USD (nine consecutive days of net inflow)
• Ethereum ETF: -11.3444 million USD

Today's Outlook

• A trading platform will support the Zilliqa network upgrade and hard fork on June 23.
• A trading platform will launch DeLorean (DMC) on June 24.
• SOON (SOON) will unlock approximately 41.88 million tokens on June 23 at 4:30 PM, accounting for 22.41% of the current circulation, valued at approximately 8.4 million USD.
• Federal Reserve Governor Bowman speaks on monetary policy and the banking industry. (June 23, 22:00)
• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will testify on the semiannual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (June 24, 22:00)

Top 500 cryptocurrencies with the largest gains today: FUN Token ( FUN ) up 67.51%, Banana For Scale ( BANANAS 31) up 21.43%, Bubblemaps ( BMT ) up 13.79%, Keeta ( KTA ) up 11.06%, XPR Network ( XPR ) up 10.83%.

Hot News

• Macro Outlook for This Week: Trump is looking for trouble everywhere, and Powell will attend the meeting "single-handedly".
• Data: Tokens such as BLAST, VENOM, and SOON will experience large unlocks, with BLAST unlocking a value of approximately 22.5 million US dollars.
• This week's preview | Powell delivers semi-annual monetary policy testimony; Blast (BLAST) and Venom (VENOM) unlock tokens worth tens of millions of dollars
• A trading platform has launched Bulla (BULLA). Eligible users can claim an airdrop of 750 BULLA tokens.
• A trading platform will launch Humanity Protocol (H)
• Ark sold over 600,000 shares of Circle stock again on June 20, earning approximately $243 million in net profit from the last three sales.
• Texas Governor signs SB 21 bill, becoming the third state to establish Bitcoin reserves.
• The giant whale AguilaTrades has opened a 20x short position of 1000.82 BTC again early this morning, currently with an unrealized loss of 1.34 million dollars.
• Arthur Hayes: The current market weakness is temporary, and Bitcoin's status as a safe haven will be unquestionable.
• It is suspected that Abraxas Capital has currently made a floating profit of 79.92 million USD by shorting BTC, ETH, and 3 other coins.
• The Wyoming stablecoin WYST is scheduled to launch on August 20.
• Bloomberg analyst: has raised the probability of the approval of the vast majority of spot Crypto Assets ETFs to 90% or higher.