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- Gate July 2025 Transparency Report:
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HashKey trading moment: Bitcoin is less than 1000 dollars away from its new high, can Ether break through 4800 dollars this week?
1. Market Observation
U.S. Treasury Secretary Basant is leading the search for a successor to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, whose term ends next May. The candidate list has expanded to about ten individuals, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and economic advisor Mark Zandi, among others. Trump continues to pressure for interest rate cuts and has narrowed the list down to four candidates, favoring those who support rate cuts. However, Basant emphasized the importance of gaining market trust, possessing forward-thinking, and maintaining the independence of monetary policy when outlining the "recruitment requirements" for the next chairman. He is concerned that the excessive expansion of the Fed's functions has jeopardized this core principle.
In terms of trade policy, Bessent compared the tariffs aimed at "rebalancing" trade deficits by the Trump administration to "melting ice cubes," suggesting that if the trade imbalance improves, tariffs may gradually decrease or even be eliminated, and revealed that trade negotiations with multiple Asian countries are expected to be largely completed by the end of October. In addition, geopolitical issues have also become a market focus. CITIC Securities analysis pointed out that if the US-Russia summit can achieve substantial breakthroughs on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it may lead to a temporary decline in the geopolitical risk premium of gold and crude oil, and boost stock market risk appetite, while also having a profound impact on the supply patterns of commodities such as energy and metals.
Bitcoin broke through $122,000 this morning, just $900 away from its all-time high. Crypto analyst Orbion pointed out that the current pattern of funds rotating from Bitcoin to Ethereum and then to smaller coins perfectly replicates the scenes before the crashes in 2017 and 2021. He predicts that Bitcoin may peak at the end of September and then drop to a low of $55,000 before the end of October. However, analyst Murphy provided a relatively optimistic short-term perspective, noting that the Bitcoin price has returned to around $120,000, with the price range supported at $117,000 being reaffirmed. The current price is operating within an ascending channel, with the first target price for a short-term rebound being the upper track of the channel at $125,000. If it can break through and maintain that level, it may further attack $137,000.
In addition, the increase of Ethereum since the beginning of the year has matched that of Bitcoin. Analyst Axel Bitblaze stated that with the price breaking through $4,200, the market has entered the "Ethereum season," although a comprehensive "altcoin season" has yet to arrive. Greeks.Live analyst Adam pointed out that the implied volatility of Ethereum's major maturities has reached 65% to 70%, far exceeding Bitcoin, indicating strong market expectations for its future price fluctuations. Regarding the future market direction, analyst IncomeSharks advised investors not to blindly chase high prices. If they missed the previous low buying opportunities, they can wait for the price to drop to around $4,000, which would be a better entry point. If ETH continues to rise to $4,800, it would be necessary to wait for a pullback at that position before considering buying. Ash Crypto believes that Ethereum has broken through the key resistance level of $4,100, and the price will quickly push towards the range of $4,400 to $4,500. Lord Hawkins analyzed based on the Wyckoff theory that Ethereum's breakthrough above $4,200 has entered the "strong signal" phase, and if support can be confirmed, the price may accelerate upwards, targeting $6,000. Meanwhile, Crypto Rover and Titan of Crypto pointed out, from a larger chart pattern perspective, that Ethereum has broken through the upper trendline of a symmetrical triangle formed over the years. Referring to historical data, this may drive the price towards the $8,000 region. Despite significant long-term forecast divergences, the market is generally bullish in the short term. Analyst Ted Pillows believes that the ETH price has successfully broken through the $4,000 level, and there is currently almost no significant resistance. He expects Ethereum to set a new historical high this week, provided that Bitcoin does not experience a significant pullback.
Over the weekend, Ethereum first entered the global top 25 assets, with a market capitalization soaring to $520 billion on the morning of August 10. HashKey's chief analyst, Jeffrey Ding, pointed out that this marks a deep integration of crypto assets into mainstream finance. From a regulatory perspective, the clear exemption for liquid staking by the U.S. SEC eliminates compliance uncertainties, injecting a yield mechanism into ETF products, which is expected to attract more institutional funds and promote industry standardization. On the market side, the surge in institutional holdings and increased on-chain activity reflect that capital is shifting from traditional assets to the crypto space. As a highly liquid asset, Ethereum is benefiting from global inflation hedging demands, showcasing immense potential for market capitalization expansion. From the perspective of Web3 ecosystem development, such favorable policies will accelerate the innovation and iteration of DeFi and NFT applications, solidifying Ethereum's position as core infrastructure and promoting cross-chain interoperability and integration of real-world assets, potentially reshaping the landscape of global digital finance.
Over the weekend, the price of $SOON experienced severe fluctuations, with a liquidation of $10.9 million in 24 hours, second only to Bitcoin and Ethereum, and briefly topped the Upbit trading volume chart before quickly falling back. It is worth noting that BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, after profiting from selling PEPE and ENA recently, invested $7.93 million over the weekend to increase his holdings in ETH, LDO, ETHF, and PENDLE, while Vitalik's on-chain assets also surpassed $1 billion as Ethereum broke through $4,300. In addition, ZORA set a new historical high again after a recent pullback, and tokens such as AERO, VIRTUAL, and ZORA in the Base ecosystem also saw significant increases.
2. Key Data (as of August 11, 12:00 HKT)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars, GMGN)
*Note: A bullish trend is indicated when the price is above the upper and lower bounds, while a bearish trend occurs when it is below. When the price fluctuates within the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it signifies a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flow (as of August 8)
4. Today's Outlook
Top 100 market cap biggest gains today: Lido up 14.8%, Ethena up 10.9%, Cronos up 6.7%, Hyperliquid up 6%, Pump.fun up 5.4%.
5. Hot News
This article is supported by HashKey. HashKey Exchange is the largest licensed virtual asset exchange in Hong Kong and is also the most trusted fiat gateway for crypto assets in Asia. It is committed to setting a new benchmark for virtual asset exchanges in terms of compliance, fund security, and platform protection.