In this article, we will delve into the historical data of Bitcoin's past two cycles and analyze its implications for current market trends.

First of all, from the perspective of the increase, the current cycle from the bottom shows that Bitcoin's maximum increase is about 7 times. In comparison, the increase during the 2013-2017 cycle exceeded 100 times, while the increase during the 2018-2021 cycle was about 20 times. This data indicates that there are obvious signs of "diminishing returns" in this round of the market.

As of August 1, this cycle has lasted for 996 days. Referring to historical data, the previous cycle lasted for 1059 days, and the one before that lasted for 1067 days. If this pattern continues, a mid-term bear market may occur in 2026, similar to the situations in 2014, 2018, and 2022.

From a top-down perspective, it has been 1362 days since the last peak. Historically, the previous two cycles were 1423 days and 1473 days respectively. Based on this inference, the current market may still have several months of upward space, and the second half of 2025 may welcome the final wave of increases.

In terms of the halving cycle, we are currently on the 468th day after the halving. The previous two cycles peaked at 546 days and 525 days respectively. This means that there may still be a few months of potential upward movement in this market cycle.

However, this cycle has three significant differences compared to history:

1. ETF Approval: Bitcoin has gained a compliant investment channel on Wall Street for the first time, allowing large funds to allocate directly, which changes the way funds flow in.

2. Institutional Involvement: An increasing number of institutional investors are participating in the Bitcoin market, which may affect market volatility and long-term trends.

3. Market Maturity: As time goes by, the Bitcoin market becomes more mature, which may lead to performance that is different from past cycles.

Although historical data provides valuable references, we should also recognize that past performance does not fully predict the future. Factors such as market environment, regulatory policies, and technological developments can significantly impact the future trends of Bitcoin. Investors need to consider multiple factors when making decisions, rather than relying solely on historical patterns.