Ethereum breaks through the $4500 mark, reaching a new high in nearly four years

On August 13, 2025, the price of Ethereum once again broke through the $4,500 mark, reaching a new high since the end of 2021. Data shows that on that day, Ethereum peaked at $4,532.68, closing stable at $4,489.22, with a 24-hour increase of 8.7%, and a cumulative increase of 71.74% since July, far exceeding Bitcoin's 10.39% increase during the same period. This bull market is mainly driven by institutional capital, resulting from three main factors: improved regulatory environment, expansion of ecological applications, and macro liquidity easing.

Regulatory Policy Easing: ETF Funds Flood In to Reshape Market Landscape

On July 24, 2024, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the first spot Ethereum ETFs with a 4:1 vote, breaking a three-year regulatory deadlock in the crypto market. The first 11 ETF products attracted $5.4 billion in inflows in their first month, setting a new record for the crypto derivatives market. By the second quarter of 2025, the total holdings of these ETF products exceeded 6 million ETH, accounting for 5% of the total circulating supply of Ethereum, becoming the core driving force behind the price increase.

Institutional capital entry exhibits obvious tiered characteristics. Traditional asset management giants first tested the waters in the OTC market and quickly shifted to the on-exchange market once ETF liquidity matured. Hedge funds adopted more aggressive strategies, such as one asset management company increasing its holdings of ETH to 1.2 billion USD within three months after approval. This multi-layered capital layout has transformed the holder structure of Ethereum from "retail-dominated" to "institutionalized." On-chain data shows that the number of addresses holding 10,000 ETH increased by 18% in the first quarter of 2025, with listed companies becoming an important force.

Ecological Explosion and Cross-border Integration: From Digital Assets to Industrial Revolution

The reconstruction of Ethereum's value is not only reflected in the influx of capital, but the deep integration of its ecosystem with the real economy is also an important reason. In the stablecoin sector, leading stablecoins account for 58% of transactions on the Ethereum network, with a daily settlement scale exceeding $80 billion. In the field of tokenization of real-world assets (RWA), 80% of tokenized government bond products led by several large financial institutions choose Ethereum as the underlying protocol, with a cumulative issuance exceeding $30 billion. Ethereum demonstrates the dual attributes of "digital infrastructure + traditional finance," becoming a key hub connecting the crypto world and the real economy.

Cross-border layout cases are constantly emerging. After a Hong Kong-listed medical company announced its "Global Enhanced Ethereum Vault" strategy, its stock price skyrocketed by 500% within a month. An American biotechnology company included ETH on its balance sheet, becoming the first biopharmaceutical company to use cryptocurrency as a reserve for research and development funding. These cases demonstrate that Ethereum has transformed from a speculative tool into a dual role of "digital gold + industrial infrastructure."

Price Drivers and Market Sentiment: Bull Market Logic Under Capital Game

The technical analysis shows that Ethereum will form a perfect "ascending flag" breakout structure in July 2025. After breaking through the resistance level of $3900 on the 4-hour chart, the trading volume surged by 42% compared to the previous period. The MACD indicator has crossed above the zero line for the second time, and the RSI indicator is close to the overbought zone (68) but has not shown a top divergence, indicating that the upward momentum is still continuing. Analysts believe that if the weekly candle can remain above $4100, it is very likely to break through the historical high of $4875 from November 2021.

The macro-level liquidity easing has also driven the market. The year-on-year CPI in the U.S. for July rose less than expected, leading to a market expectation that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September has risen to 95%. This monetary environment has prompted institutional funds to flow from traditional fixed income products into crypto assets. The staking yield for Ethereum remains stable in the range of 4.5%-5%, making it a unique asset with both growth potential and yield. Currently, the open interest of Ethereum futures exceeds $15 billion, and the call/put ratio in the options market is 2.8, reflecting strong bullish sentiment in the market, but the leverage level has not yet reached extremes, leaving room for upward movement.

Risks and Outlook: Rational Thinking in a Bull Market

Despite the general optimism in the market, historical patterns remind us to remain vigilant. Data shows that on August 12, the global cryptocurrency market saw liquidations amounting to $407 million, of which $322 million were long positions. This indicates that short-term capital speculation has reached a fever pitch. From a technical perspective, the trapped positions near the historical peak in 2021 are concentrated in the $4500-$4600 range, and a breakout requires a stronger catalyst.

Investors may consider two strategies: one is to lay out a long-term investment in the infrastructure of the Ethereum ecosystem, such as Layer 2 solutions and decentralized storage protocols; the second is to focus on application scenarios closely tied to the real economy, such as medical data tokenization and blockchain for biological assets. As a crypto investment mogul once said, bull markets create price bubbles, while bear markets can solidify true value. Regardless of how the market fluctuates, Ethereum, as the premier public chain for smart contracts, is unlikely to have its position shaken in the short term, which may be a more core logic worth paying attention to than short-term price fluctuations.