2024 U.S. Presidential Election Prediction: Analysis of Multiple Factors Behind the Rise in Trump’s Support

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, data from a prediction platform shows that Trump's support rate is gradually rising, with the latest forecast indicating he has gained 53% support, while his main competitor Harris has a support rate of 46%. This change in data has attracted widespread attention, especially in the financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. As the Republican candidate, Trump's rising support not only reflects his advantages in economic policy, voter mobilization, and party cohesion, but also reveals the challenges and dilemmas Harris faces during the campaign.

This article will deeply analyze the key factors leading to Trump's rise in support, including the Democratic Party's economic policies, the shifting attitudes of moderate voters, the absence of key political figures in swing states, and the broad support for Trump from the cryptocurrency industry, to help readers gain a more comprehensive understanding of this complex electoral dynamic.

1. Harris's economic policy sparks controversy

The economic policy proposed by Harris is one of the core elements of her campaign. However, this economic policy has sparked widespread controversy in American society, especially among moderate voters.

1. Controversy of Price Control Policies

The most controversial aspect of Harris's economic policy is the price control measures. These measures aim to limit the pricing power of businesses on essential goods through legislative means to prevent price gouging. However, although this policy has some theoretical benefits in controlling inflation and protecting consumer interests, in practice, economists and policy experts generally question its feasibility.

Many experts believe that price controls may lead to market distortions, resulting in supply chain issues and product shortages. Some media have pointed out that Harris's price control policies could disrupt the supply-demand balance in the market and even lead to black markets and hoarding. This concern is not unfounded; historically, many price control measures have failed due to poor market responses. Therefore, while Harris's policy may attract some voters hoping to reduce living costs in the short term, it could lead to economic instability in the long run. This has resulted in a decrease in her support among centrist voters, particularly those highly concerned about economic stability and market freedom.

2. Challenges of Housing Policy

Harris's housing policy has also played a complex role in the election. She proposed a plan to address the housing shortage by constructing a large number of affordable homes for the middle class. This policy seems reasonable on paper, especially in the face of the increasingly severe housing crisis in the United States, as increasing housing supply is undoubtedly a direct and effective solution.

However, the problem lies in the extremely high execution cost of this policy, and its economic feasibility and practical effects have been widely questioned. For example, Harris promised to build 3 million affordable housing units during her first term, but the sources of funding and the details of policy implementation have not been clearly stated. Furthermore, she also proposed a commitment not to increase the tax burden on families earning less than $400,000 a year, which means that the funding for the entire project may rely on large-scale government deficits or increasing taxes on the wealthy, which will undoubtedly exacerbate criticism both within and outside the Democratic Party.

This uncertainty not only makes centrist voters feel uneasy, but also raises doubts about Harris's credibility in policy execution. Price controls and subsidies for homebuyers seem to directly address the interests of low- and middle-income voters, but in reality, they may inadvertently trigger further increases in market prices, exacerbating supply and demand conflicts. Therefore, although the proposal of housing policies shows Harris's concern for social issues, the inadequacies in their design and the difficulties in execution have a counterproductive effect on the electoral situation.

3. Attractiveness and Limitations for the Middle Class

Harris's economic policy focuses on improving the quality of life for the middle class, particularly emphasizing the enhancement of economic security for the middle class through increased child tax credits and controlling healthcare costs. These measures theoretically help alleviate the economic pressures faced by the American middle class, especially against the backdrop of rising childcare costs and healthcare expenses.

However, as some critics have pointed out, while these policies have gained some support from voters, the issues of long-term sustainability and funding sources remain unresolved challenges. The votes of the middle class are crucial for any candidate, but if the implementation of the policies is mishandled, these votes may shift to opponents. Although Harris's policy design has an idealistic tone, potential problems in the implementation process, such as the possibility of increasing the government's fiscal deficit, undermine the actual appeal of these policies to the middle class.

Additionally, Harris attempts to combine economic policies with social justice issues, such as achieving broader social equity through anti-discrimination laws and reducing the economic burden on impoverished groups. However, this approach has raised concerns among conservatives and some centrists, who believe that these policies may further expand government power and increase social and economic uncertainty.

4. Overall Impact on the Election Situation

Overall, Harris's economic policies, while demonstrating care for the middle class and low-income groups to some extent, have failed to effectively boost her support among centrist and economically liberal voters due to the radical nature of the policy design and lack of execution details. In contrast, these voters may be more inclined to support Trump, who has clearer positions and more pragmatic policies.

The controversy surrounding these policies not only puts Harris in a passive position in the election, but also provides Trump with a pretext for attacks. Trump can leverage the uncertainties in these policies to emphasize his experience in economic management and his support for market freedom, thereby attracting voters who are more concerned about economic stability and growth. Therefore, the impact of the Democratic economic policies in this election is dual: on one hand, it strengthens Harris's support among progressives, while on the other hand, it creates more uncertainty among key moderate voters, thus providing conditions for Trump's rise in support.

Harris's policies include measures to reduce the cost of living, control prices, and increase housing supply. Although these policies theoretically help address the plight of the American middle class, the lack of clarity in their implementation details and the potential issues of fiscal deficits have led to criticism of the policies themselves.

For example, while the price control policy proposed by Harris may be attractive to some voters in the short term, many economists and media outlets believe that this policy is a "populist gimmick" that cannot effectively solve real problems and may instead lead to market distortions and product shortages. This negative assessment has weakened Harris's support among voters, especially among centrist voters for whom economic issues are of significant importance, as they are more inclined to support candidates who can maintain economic stability and market freedom.

2. The Attitudes of American Moderate Voters are Uncertain

Centrist voters often play a key role in U.S. elections. Their positions typically do not lean toward either side, focusing more on the candidates' actual policies and their impacts on the economy and society. Against the backdrop of controversies surrounding Harris's economic policies, her support among centrist voters has begun to decline. In contrast, while Trump's economic policies are also controversial, his clear stance on tax cuts, economic stimulus, and other issues better aligns with centrist voters' expectations for economic development.

In addition, Trump's supportive attitude towards the free market, as well as the economic measures he implemented during his presidency, such as tax cuts and deregulation, have gained recognition from some centrist voters. In contrast, Harris's economic policies are seen as too radical, especially regarding price controls and housing subsidies, making it difficult for her to gain support among centrists.

3. Will the absence of the Pennsylvania governor at the Democratic Party meeting shake the morale?

The absence of the Pennsylvania governor has had a negative impact on Harris's election prospects. As a key swing state, the attitudes of its voters are crucial to the outcome of the national election. The governor's absence may be interpreted as dissatisfaction within the party regarding Harris's economic policies or campaign strategies, and this dissatisfaction could further weaken Harris's support in the state.

In this situation, voters may doubt Harris's campaign ability and party unity, thereby turning to support the more certain Trump. The governor's absence not only affects Harris's election prospects in Pennsylvania but also indirectly impacts her performance in other swing states. For Harris, ensuring party unity and support in key states is crucial for her campaign's success, but the governor's absence undoubtedly increases her challenges in this regard.

4. Trump's "mutual pursuit" with the crypto industry?

Trump's support for the cryptocurrency industry is another important factor in his rising approval ratings. Although Trump had a negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies in the early days, he gradually changed his stance as the market developed and began to actively support the crypto industry.

In the 2024 election, Trump became one of the first major candidates to openly accept cryptocurrency donations. His campaign team announced that they would accept donations in various cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP. This move not only showcased his open attitude towards cryptocurrencies but also established a closer connection with the crypto community.

The decision to accept cryptocurrency donations is a strategic move that not only expands Trump's voter base but also attracts younger voters and tech enthusiasts who are skeptical of the traditional financial system. These voters often have a strong sense of identification with decentralization, free markets, and financial innovation, and by accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump sends them a clear signal: he supports this emerging field and is willing to advocate for it politically.

In addition to accepting cryptocurrency donations, Trump has made a series of policy commitments that further solidify his position within the crypto community. One of the most notable commitments is to pardon the founder of a certain online trading platform. This platform is one of the earliest and most famous cryptocurrency trading platforms, and the case of its founder holds great symbolic significance within the crypto community. Trump's commitment has not only won him favor among a large number of cryptocurrency supporters but has also conveyed his tolerant attitude towards the cryptocurrency industry to the outside world.

In addition, Trump also stated that if he is elected again, he will promote incorporating Bitcoin into the U.S. strategic reserves and consider using Bitcoin to address part of the national debt issue. Although these proposals have sparked widespread controversy in mainstream finance, they have received a warm response within the crypto community. Cryptocurrency supporters believe that these initiatives will greatly enhance the legitimacy and global standing of cryptocurrencies, bringing greater development opportunities to the industry.

This supportive attitude has gained widespread recognition in the crypto community. Compared to Harris, Trump's stance in the cryptocurrency sector is clearer and more proactive, earning him a large number of supporters in this emerging market. Practitioners and investors in the cryptocurrency industry are very sensitive to market prospects and are more willing to support a candidate who has an open attitude towards the crypto industry. Trump’s position has evidently earned him the support of this segment of voters and boosted his approval ratings.

V. Cryptocurrency Companies' Election Spending in the 2024 U.S. Election Cycle

According to a report from a certain organization, nearly half of the corporate political donations in the 2024 election cycle come from cryptocurrency companies. These companies influence election outcomes by supporting candidates aligned with their interests. The cryptocurrency industry's support for Trump is not only reflected in rhetoric but also has a tangible impact on the election through financial assistance.

This enterprise-level support further consolidates.