Mysterious trader wins $50 million in the prediction market

A mysterious trader is poised to earn nearly $50 million in the prediction market by accurately predicting the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This trader, who goes by "Théo," has not only bet that Trump will win the presidential election but has also boldly predicted that he will triumph in the popular vote, a scenario that many political observers believe is unlikely to happen.

Théo placed a series of bets using four anonymous accounts on a certain cryptocurrency prediction market. He predicted that Trump would win several key swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Although he refused to reveal his true identity, he has been in contact with a certain media outlet since mid-October.

This allegedly wealthy Frenchman stated that he had worked as a trader at several banks. Since the summer of this year, he has been using his mathematical knowledge to analyze American polling data. He believes that the polls overestimate Vice President Harris's support rate and has thus bet over $30 million predicting Trump's victory.

On election night, as the results gradually emerged, Théo appeared very excited. He woke up in the middle of the night in France to check the election results, and Trump's strong performance in Florida made him more confident in his bets.

As of Wednesday afternoon, analysts predict that Trump will win the popular vote, obtaining nearly 72 million votes, while Harris will receive 67.1 million votes, although a large number of ballots remain uncounted in some states. The prediction market is almost certain that Trump will win the popular vote.

Théo stated that his bet was purely for profit purposes, with no political motives. He has repeatedly criticized American opinion polls, believing that mainstream media polls are biased towards the Democratic Party, often producing anomalous results favorable to Harris.

The trader believes that the polls fail to accurately reflect the "shy Trump voter effect." He suggests that polling agencies should adopt the "neighbor polling method," which involves asking respondents which candidate they think their neighbors will support, in order to indirectly understand the true voting tendencies.

Théo cited several polls using the neighbor voting method, which showed that Harris's support rate was several percentage points lower than traditional methods. He believes this confirms that the polls have once again underestimated Trump's support rate, which has become the basis for his bold bets.

On election night, Théo also revealed that he had commissioned a major polling agency to conduct a survey to measure the neighbor effect, but he refused to disclose specific details. He firmly believes that if American polling agencies adopt this method in the future, it will be able to more accurately reflect public opinion and avoid major misjudgments again.