The situation of the U.S. election has drastically changed, where will the Crypto Assets market go from here?

Recently, the Democratic Party of the United States held an online town hall meeting aimed at garnering the support of approximately 40 million Crypto Assets holders. However, the Vice President Kamala Harris, who was scheduled to attend, unexpectedly did not show up, raising widespread questions.

Nevertheless, the likelihood of Harris being elected as the next president is still rising. According to data from a certain prediction market, before the event was scheduled, Harris's probability of winning was about 40%; after the announcement of the event, her probability of winning was equal to Trump's for the first time; with the event taking place, Harris's probability further increased to 53%, while Trump's was 44%.

Meanwhile, the price of the Harris concept coin $KAMA is also continuously rising. As of now, the price of $KAMA has reached 0.0131 USD, an increase of nearly 47% from the low point on August 4th. In contrast, the Trump concept coin $TRUMP has dropped more than 60% from its high point a month ago.

So, will Harris really be elected? If she becomes the President of the United States, what impact will it have on the Crypto Assets market? And how should Trump turn the situation around?

Harris's Attitude Towards Crypto Assets

Unlike Trump's hostile attitude towards Crypto Assets during his presidency, Harris seems to have maintained a indifferent and conservative stance towards this emerging field. She has never given enough attention to Crypto Assets, and has even been perceived by the outside world as "not very interested".

First, as Vice President of the United States, Harris mainly focuses on more traditional macro areas such as economic recovery, COVID-19 response, environmental issues, and racial equality. From her financial disclosures, it appears that Harris prefers to invest in stable, traditional assets such as U.S. Treasury bonds and emerging market stocks. This investment portfolio reflects her particular caution when selecting emerging technologies and financial instruments; she seems more willing to maintain a certain distance from high-risk Crypto Assets.

Secondly, although Harris has served as a senator and attorney general in California and has had contact with the tech giants in Silicon Valley, this has not translated into her public support or involvement in Crypto Assets. Even as Crypto Assets have gained increasing attention in Silicon Valley and the broader tech industry, Harris did not express clear views on Crypto Assets policy during her time in public office, nor did she actively participate in relevant legislative or regulatory discussions in Congress or other public forums.

Moreover, even during her time as Vice President, Harris's position on Crypto Assets has not shown any significant change. She has neither participated in nor promoted any major Crypto Assets-related policies, nor has she made any official statements supporting or opposing Crypto Assets. In stark contrast to her active involvement in areas such as the environment, education, and healthcare, Harris's "absence" in the Crypto Assets field is particularly striking.

Changes in the Harris Team

To win the election, Harris seems to have started making some changes. Her campaign team recently recruited two advisors with backgrounds in Crypto Assets: David Plouffe and Gene Sperling. Plouffe was the campaign manager and senior advisor for former U.S. President Obama; after leaving the White House in 2013, he actively engaged in the Crypto Assets field, serving as a global strategic advisor on a certain trading platform's global advisory board and at Alchemy Pay. The other member joining Harris's team, Sperling, has served on the board of a certain Crypto Assets company and has also held important economic advisory roles in the Clinton and Obama administrations.

These actions may superficially appear to show Harris's emphasis on Crypto Assets, as she is working hard to establish connections with the crypto industry. The addition of two advisors may also provide her with some support and assistance in winning the election and formulating Crypto Assets policies. However, do these "superficial efforts" truly reflect a change in her attitude? The answer seems to be negative.

Previously, there were rumors that Harris would attend the Bitcoin conference held at the end of July and speak. It is well known that Trump, even after being shot, boldly announced that he would attend this conference and indeed expressed at the meeting that he would formulate a series of Crypto Assets-friendly policies. The Crypto Assets market was very much looking forward to how the two candidates would debate at the conference. However, the result was disappointing, as Harris ultimately did not attend.

Of course, considering that Harris has just been nominated as a presidential candidate and is busy with affairs, it may be understandable that she did not attend the conference. However, her subsequent absence from the virtual roundtable organized by California Democratic Congressman Ro Khanna raised widespread doubts in the crypto industry. During the meeting, several well-known representatives from the crypto industry engaged in dialogue with Democratic officials. As a representative of the Democratic Party, Harris should have attended the meeting.

Perhaps influenced by these factors, the dialogue between crypto representatives and Democratic representatives at the roundtable was not smooth. Industry executives failed to reach a consensus with the Democrats and instead leveled harsh criticisms at government officials. Major donor Conway and others expressed strong dissatisfaction with the government's empty promises. This tension highlights the divergence in policy positions between the crypto industry and the Democratic government, and once again deepens the crypto industry's doubts about Harris: Does she really value Crypto Assets?

Prediction of Harris Policy Direction

What impact will it have on the Crypto Assets market if Harris wins the election?

The Biden administration has implemented stricter regulations and tax transparency measures in the encryption market. Although these measures have reduced market uncertainty to some extent, they have also raised concerns and opposition from the Crypto Assets community. As a Democratic candidate, Harris may find it difficult to break this established framework in terms of policy.

Jeff Dorman, the Chief Investment Officer of a certain investment firm, pointed out that while Trump's election may be more beneficial for the Crypto Assets market, Harris's victory will not be as bad as some people worry. He also mentioned that heavyweight figures in the Democratic Party, such as Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, have recently supported some bills that are favorable to Crypto Assets, indicating that the attitude towards Crypto Assets within the Democratic Party is changing.

However, are these changes enough? Alex Thorn, a research director at a research institution, pointed out that Harris's choice of two anti-Crypto Assets officials (Brian Deese and Bharat Ramamurti) from the Biden administration to join her team may continue Biden's hostile policies.

It should be noted that Trump has explicitly proposed a plan to use Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, and even considered using Bitcoin to address the US dollar debt issue. These bold statements are currently unmatched by the Democratic Party. Considering Harris's past initiatives and the long-standing harsh policies of the Democratic Party, it is hard to believe that she would propose a more lenient policy.

Trump's Advantages

Trump's advantage lies in his consistently crypto-friendly stance. From launching multiple series of NFTs to hosting dinners with NFT benefits, and even attending the Bitcoin conference at the risk of his life, compared to Biden who hurriedly released his own meme to win over the crypto community when he was significantly behind, and Harris's seemingly glamorous initiatives such as hiring a crypto team and holding meetings, Trump's performance is undoubtedly more "sincere".

From the perspective of the crypto market, whether it is the relatively loose policies during Trump's presidency or the recent surge of memes related to Trump, the crypto market clearly leans more towards him.

In addition, Trump recently held a dialogue with crypto leader Musk on social media. Although the entire conversation did not mention Bitcoin or Crypto Assets, Trump's initiative to engage with Musk undoubtedly boosted his popularity in the crypto circle. This positive move indicates that Trump seems to be trying to consolidate his support within the crypto community and demonstrate an interest and open attitude towards the field.

Although we can criticize that his actions and speeches may just be "pie in the sky" to win votes, the crypto market is clearly more willing to accept Trump's "big pie" compared to the long-term harsh policies of the Democratic Party. After all, every time a political event related to Trump emerges, it brings a significant surge to the crypto assets market. In the face of visible good news, perhaps we don't need to overly anticipate the unattainable and elusive Harris policy.

Conclusion

Overall, Harris's attitude towards Crypto Assets seems to be still exploring. Although she has recently taken some measures to try to get closer to the Crypto community, her actions and statements seem to always contradict each other, and her position remains unclear. Personally, compared to Trump, it is currently difficult to have enough confidence in Harris. For the Crypto market, whether Harris's leadership can truly bring benefits still needs time to verify. As the election battle progresses, it may be worth continuing to pay attention to her movements in this field, as there may be clearer signals appearing.