XRP and Dogecoin Face the Risk of Plummeting in the Second Half of 2025

Over the past century, the stock market has always been regarded as the channel that generates the most wealth for investors, outperforming bonds, commodities, and real estate. However, in the last decade, no traditional asset can compare with the remarkable growth of the crypto market. While the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) increased by about 3 times over the past 10 years, two popular cryptocurrencies, XRP and Dogecoin, surged by more than 34,000% and nearly 117,000%, respectively, according to data from YCharts. However, despite that impressive performance, both XRP and Dogecoin may be entering a difficult correction phase in August, potentially lasting until the end of 2025. Here are the main reasons:

1. The Actual Application Rate Is Not As Expected Despite being widely promoted as a faster, cheaper, and safer payment solution compared to traditional methods, the actual adoption rate of XRP and Dogecoin remains quite modest. XRP is used as a bridge currency in cross-border transactions through RippleNet. However, among the approximately 300 global financial institutions using RippleNet, not all use XRP in transactions. In other words, the level of RippleNet application does not equate to an increased demand for XRP. Dogecoin received a significant boost when Elon Musk announced that Tesla would accept DOGE to purchase certain products. However, according to data from Cryptopolitan, only about 2,500 business units will accept Dogecoin by 2024 - a very small number compared to traditional payment systems. Although these blockchain networks may be cheaper and faster than SWIFT, in terms of popularity and global acceptance, they still cannot compete with traditional payment methods.
2. The Blockchain Network Is Not Really Prominent XRP Ledger can confirm and process transactions within 3–5 seconds at a cost of only a fraction of a cent. Dogecoin has a processing time of about 1 minute and costs around $0.02. However, competitors like Solana and Stellar are showing a clear superiority: Solana processes international transactions in about 400 milliseconds at a cost of less than one cent. Stellar can also handle transactions on par with XRP and DOGE but is more popular in peer-to-peer transactions. Therefore, in terms of speed, cost, and scalability, Dogecoin and XRP are gradually losing their competitive edge.
3. The Effect of "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" is Being Amplified Both of these currencies are expected to rise sharply after Donald Trump's victory in November 2024: The resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler on January 20, 2025 (, the day Trump takes office ), is expected to help Ripple resolve its long-standing legal issues. Elon Musk has been invited to join the Government Efficiency Department (DOGE – sharing a name with Dogecoin ), which makes investors optimistic about the future of DOGE, even though it is not directly related to the token. However, these supporting factors no longer have any influence. Musk no longer holds any role related to the government, and Ripple's lawsuit has yet to achieve a major breakthrough. As the "good news" has already been reflected in the price beforehand, a trend of selling to take profits will emerge – this is a common phenomenon in the financial market: "Buy the rumor, sell the news."
4. The Crypto Market Is Being Tied to the Overpriced Stock Market Initially, cryptocurrencies were expected to be an alternative asset, helping investors hedge against inflation and not relying on the stock market. However, the reality shows that the price volatility of digital currencies is increasingly in sync with the crypto market. Data from Bespoke Investment Group shows that the (bull market) of the S&P 500 lasts an average of 1,011 days, about 3.5 times longer than the (bear market). However, the current market is the third most expensive bull market in 154 years, according to the Shiller P/E valuation index. This increases the risk of a deep correction. If the US stock market adjusts, XRP and Dogecoin are likely to be heavily affected as well – and with a stronger level of volatility. Conclusion: Caution is Essential XRP and Dogecoin once provided incredible profits in the past, but the current environment is no longer as favorable as before. From the limited practical application level, fierce competition from new blockchains, to the adverse macro factors from the stock market, all are showing significant risks for these two coins for the remainder of 2025. Investors should carefully consider, avoid chasing short-term expectations, and always equip themselves with effective risk management strategies.