BTC exchange supply hits a new low, possibly indicating a breakthrough to a new high

Recent data shows that by the end of April 2025, the number of BTC held by centralized exchanges has fallen to about 2.5 million, the lowest level since 2019. This figure is a decrease of 500,000 compared to the end of 2024.

This trend is widely interpreted as a signal that investors are transferring BTC from exchanges to personal wallets. This move is usually associated with a long-term holding strategy, as investors can reduce the potential selling risks arising from operational convenience by withdrawing assets from exchanges.

Since the beginning of 2023, the trend of withdrawing BTC from the exchange has continued to develop. At that time, the BTC reserves of the exchange were about 3.2 million coins. Over the past year, this trend has further accelerated with the participation of major institutional investors.

Institutional demand for BTC may become a key factor driving supply shortages. Some large enterprises have recently significantly increased their holdings of BTC, directly exacerbating the outflow of exchange tokens.

A senior BTC insider stated: "We have never seen such a situation before. A global BTC supply shortage has never occurred. This is a significant positive signal."

Another well-known digital asset trader pointed out on social media: "The supply of BTC on exchanges has fallen to its lowest level since the third quarter of 2018. As of now, only 2.5 million BTC remain on exchanges, a decrease of 500,000 compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. A few days ago, some institutions mentioned that other institutions are continuously buying and withdrawing BTC from exchanges. Supply + Demand = Price Explosion."

The latest survey shows that over three-quarters of institutional investors plan to increase their allocation to digital assets by 2025, with many institutions already using BTC for portfolio diversification and as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty.

In addition, some listed companies are also actively accumulating BTC. Since November 2024, these companies have withdrawn over 425,000 BTC from the exchange, with a total holding of nearly 350,000 BTC.

The reduction in the supply of BTC on the exchange has several effects on the market, including a decrease in selling pressure. With the reduced amount of BTC available for immediate sale, the risk of large-scale sell-offs is lowered, which helps to stabilize or even increase prices.

If demand continues to grow while supply remains constrained, the market may face a supply shortage, which historically has often led to a sharp rise in prices.

An on-chain analyst commented: "The fundamentals of BTC have turned bullish, and the conditions for breaking the historical high are already mature."

The shift towards self-custody and long-term holding reflects the maturation of the digital asset market, where both retail and institutional investors increasingly view BTC as a strategic asset rather than a speculative tool.

The decline in the supply of BTC on the exchange is generally viewed as a bullish signal, but it also means that a surge in demand could lead to increased price volatility. In the coming weeks, the market will verify whether this supply shortage will drive BTC prices into a new upward trend, or whether market sentiment will change with the emergence of new macroeconomic data.