The gold bull run is not over, expected to reach $8900 in 2030.

Recently, the global financial landscape is undergoing profound changes, with gold once again becoming the focus of the capital market. A recent report from an investment company indicates that the world is currently experiencing a new round of financial restructuring, with gold emerging as a currency asset with no counterparty risk and immune to inflation, highlighting its strategic significance. From deindustrialization in the United States and uncontrollable fiscal deficits, to the rise of non-state credit assets like Bitcoin, and large-scale gold purchases by central banks, these trends together form the backdrop of the "gold bull run" pattern.

The report believes that the current gold bull run is the opposite of the movie "The Big Short": against the backdrop of the global financial and monetary system restructuring, strategically investing in gold will bring considerable returns. Currently, gold is in the second phase of the bull run, known as the "public participation phase," characterized by:

• Media reports are becoming increasingly optimistic.
• Speculative interest and trading volume are rising
• New financial products are being launched
• Analyst raises price target

In the past five years, global gold prices have risen by 92%, while the actual purchasing power of the dollar against gold has decreased by nearly 50%. As of the end of April this year, 22 new highs have been set. Although it has broken the $3000 barrier, this round of increases is still modest compared to historical bull runs.

The report proposed a new 60/40 investment portfolio concept:

• Stocks: 45%
• Bonds:15%
• Safe-haven Gold: 15%
• Performance Gold: 10%
• Commodities: 10%
• Bitcoin: 5%

This reflects concerns over the loss of trust in traditional safe-haven assets such as government bonds.

Key factors affecting gold include:

1. Geopolitical Restructuring: The world is moving from "the gold-backed Bretton Woods era, to the internal currency-backed Bretton Woods II, and then to the external currency-backed Bretton Woods III".

2. Impact of Trump's Policies: Addressing government over-indebtedness, trade policy reform, and the depreciation of the dollar.

3. Changes in European monetary policy: Germany abandons fiscal conservatism,预计 national debt will rise from 60% of GDP to 90%.

4. Central Bank Demand: For three consecutive years, over 1,000 tons of gold reserves have been added. In 2024, gold will account for 22% of currency reserves, the highest since 1997.

5. Continuous depreciation of fiat currency: Since 1900, the M2 money supply in the United States has increased by 2,333 times, far surpassing population growth.

The report also discusses the concept of "shadow gold prices," which refers to the theoretical gold price in a scenario where the base money supply is fully backed by gold. Currently, the gold coverage of the U.S. monetary base is only 14.5%.

Gold Price Prediction:

• Basic scenario: about $4800 by the end of 2030
• Inflation scenario: Approximately $8900 by the end of 2030

The report warns against dismissing the possibility of a second wave of inflation similar to the 1970s. In a stagflation environment, gold, silver, and mining stocks perform exceptionally well.

In terms of Bitcoin, the report suggests that by the end of 2030 it could reach 50% of gold's market value. If the price of gold reaches $4,800, Bitcoin would need to rise to about $900,000.

The report points out that potential risk factors include: declining central bank demand, investors reducing positions, decreasing geopolitical premiums, the U.S. economy performing better than expected, high-tech and sentiment-driven risks, and a stronger dollar.

Overall, the report believes that the gold bull run has not yet ended and is currently in the mid-stage of public participation. Gold is transforming from being seen as an outdated relic to a key asset in investment portfolios, providing both defensive stability and offensive potential. As traditional safe-haven assets lose trust, gold is re-emerging as a core component of long-term investment strategies.