The crypto market may usher in a high-level consolidation phase

Recently, the crypto market has shown signs of growth alongside a surge in capital, but this may mask potential structural risks. The market seems to be entering a stage of high-level volatility, requiring investors to remain vigilant.

From a macro perspective, the cooling inflation data and the easing of some trade rhetoric have boosted market sentiment. However, the momentum of funds is weakening, with continuous declines in the inflow of stablecoins and ETFs, and new buying interest is clearly insufficient. There is a divergence between price and market momentum; although the prices of major encryption currencies have risen, indicators such as fund inflows and OTC premiums are all cooling simultaneously, increasing the risk of a pullback.

In the current market environment, it is recommended that investors adopt a defensive strategy. Attention can be focused on the support level of Bitcoin around $100,000, as well as the pullback rhythm of Ethereum. For the highly volatile altcoins, it may be considered to appropriately reduce positions at high levels.

In terms of the macroeconomy, trade fluctuations and inflation data have triggered short-term market volatility. The boom in corporate bonds has supported the stock market but has also intensified risks in the U.S. bond market. High leverage among consumers and businesses, combined with the Federal Reserve's policy constraints, has begun to reveal systemic liquidity risks.

The analysis of fund flows shows that ETF inflows have continued to decline, with only $609 million flowing in this week. In terms of stablecoins, there was an issuance of $877 million this week, with an average daily issuance of $112 million, which is at a low level. The OTC premium has continued to decrease, reflecting a cautious market sentiment.

The Bitcoin market is in a volatile upward range, with an increase in the distribution of chips above $100,000. Ethereum is performing weaker than Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC ratio breaking down this week, indicating that funds are continuously flowing back to Bitcoin dominance. On-chain data for Ethereum shows an increase in active addresses, which may indicate that a phase of bottoming has been completed.

On-chain data analysis shows that the total amount of stablecoins has slightly increased to $211.256 billion, but the issuance amount has only risen by $877 million, a significant drop compared to previous periods. The daily average issuance has fallen to $125 million, marking a new low in nearly four weeks, reflecting a noticeable slowdown in capital inflow. This may indicate that the market has entered a wait-and-see stage, with marginal liquidity weakening in the short term, requiring vigilance against potential consolidation pressure.

ETF fund inflows have slowed for three consecutive weeks, with a net inflow of only $609 million this week, significantly reducing the marginal impact of funds. Although prices are still within an upward channel, there is a divergence with the underlying funds, indicating a lack of upward momentum and adjustment risks.

The off-exchange premium continues to decline below water, diverging from prices, reflecting a weakening inflow of off-exchange funds and a lack of new momentum in the market. This is consistent with the slowdown in the issuance rate of stablecoins and a significant decline in ETF inflows, indicating that the market is currently in a stage of stock game.

From the perspective of changes in on-chain address structures, large addresses choose to reduce their holdings when prices rise sharply, and make small replenishments during pullbacks, reflecting a strategy of short-term risk aversion and high-level reallocation. In contrast, small and medium-sized addresses show a trend of steady accumulation without any significant reduction in holdings, indicating a certain level of confidence in the market.

From a technical perspective, the market has formed strong support around 100,000 USD, but it may also become a short-term resistance zone. In the current context of insufficient capital inflow, price increases may be limited.

Overall, the market is in a wait-and-see and game-playing stage. Large capital is taking a cautious stance, while small and medium-sized funds are an important support for the current price range. Without significant positive news, the market may experience a weakening in momentum after a short-term surge, entering a stage of fluctuation or technical correction. Investors should closely monitor market changes and adjust their strategies in a timely manner.