2025 Bitcoin and Macro Trend Outlook

Recently, an online interview themed "Outlook on the Future of Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Trends" attracted widespread attention in the industry. Several industry experts conducted in-depth discussions on major events in the crypto market in 2024 and their impacts, and provided unique insights into market trends for 2025.

2024 Market Review

The year 2024 is a crucial year for the entire cryptocurrency market. Events such as the Bitcoin halving, the approval of the Bitcoin ETF in the United States, and Trump's victory are driving Bitcoin to break the $100,000 barrier. At the same time, more institutions, enterprises, and even countries are starting to participate in the cryptocurrency field.

Experts believe that the emergence of GOAT is one of the most shocking events of 2024. It has disrupted the industry's understanding of the AI track and revealed that smart contracts may have been inherently designed for AI agents rather than humans. This discovery could fundamentally change our understanding of the large-scale adoption of blockchain.

The direct involvement of the Trump family in DeFi projects is also surprising, reflecting a fundamental shift in the attitude of the mainstream financial market in the United States towards crypto assets. The combination of politics and crypto has come earlier and more intensely than expected, and this trend will only continue to deepen.

Retail Participation and Market Trends

Regarding whether retail investors will find it difficult to participate after Bitcoin breaks the $100,000 mark, experts believe it depends on how "participation" is defined. While it may be difficult to achieve the same easy hundredfold or thousandfold returns as in the past, Bitcoin remains one of the excellent choices for investment and financial management.

The market may no longer show a clear four-year bull-bear cycle, but instead exhibit a slow upward trend similar to that of gold ETFs. In the future, the altcoin market may become more specialized and resemble the US stock market, requiring strong investment research capabilities to achieve returns that surpass Bitcoin.

Institutional Investment Strategies

Institutions such as MicroStrategy and BlackRock have played an important role in the rise of Bitcoin in 2024. Experts expect these institutional strategies to continue in 2025, with more followers emerging. This institutional participation has actually expanded the inclusivity of Bitcoin, allowing more people who cannot directly purchase or manage Bitcoin to participate in the market.

However, concentrated institutional positions may affect price volatility, which is one of the risks investors need to pay attention to. It is expected that institutions like MicroStrategy may stop increasing their holdings when they hold 7-8% of Bitcoin to avoid impacting the decentralized nature of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Ecosystem Development

Regarding the Bitcoin ecosystem, including the development of Layer 2, BTC-Fi, and inscriptions, experts believe that the concept of "Bitcoin Layer 2" may be somewhat forced. Bitcoin, as an asset, can be considered its ecosystem on any platform that facilitates trading.

The demand for BTC-Fi does exist, but the risks are also significant. Currently, mainstream BTC yields have a return rate of 5-7 points, which looks attractive in the short term, but its long-term sustainability is questionable. Experts suggest exploring cooperative models between on-chain projects and traditional financial institutions.

Experts believe that the future development of the Bitcoin ecosystem should focus on particularly important areas that require absolute neutrality, such as infrastructure for freedom of speech. Although these projects are currently facing difficulties, entrepreneurs have shown stronger conviction and persistence.

The Impact of Trump's Presidency on the Cryptocurrency Industry

Trump will assume office as President of the United States on January 20, 2025, and the market generally views this as a significant positive. Experts predict that during his term, Bitcoin and other crypto assets may become strategic reserves for nations or sovereign entities, and more countries and regions may follow suit by establishing special zones for more aggressive experimentation, potentially expanding the scope of ETF issuances.

However, it is also important to pay attention to the risks. This may not be favorable for entrepreneurs without a U.S. background, and stricter nationality checks may emerge in the future. Experts suggest a rational view of policy benefits, focusing on the actual implementation methods and pace of the policies.

2025 Market Forecast

Experts are generally optimistic about the market trends for 2025. The likelihood of a bull-bear transition occurring in the first quarter is low, and it may not happen until the second quarter or later. Ethereum may break its historical high, while Solana, having already risen several times over the past year and with a large amount of unlocking pending, needs to be approached with caution.

Experts predict that several significant structural changes may occur in 2025:

1. Traditional financial institutions will participate more deeply in the crypto market.
2. Large tech companies may incorporate cryptocurrency into their balance sheets.
3. Layer 2 ecosystem may experience explosive growth
4. The integration of DeFi and traditional finance will accelerate.

Overall, experts believe that the market will have a long-term upward trend in 2025, but the way in which positive developments materialize may be different from expectations. They suggest that entrepreneurs seize opportunities, and ordinary investors should not be influenced by short-term fluctuations and get shaken out.