The passage of the U.S. "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" and its accompanying policies (such as the "GENIUS Act") has had an impact on the crypto assets market, particularly on BTC and ETH contracts, mainly reflected in the following aspects:

1. The impact of stablecoins and liquidity on the binding of U.S. Treasuries and liquidity tightening.
The bill requires stablecoin issuers to hold U.S. Treasuries or high liquidity assets at a 1:1 ratio, bans algorithmic stablecoins, and establishes a dual-track regulatory framework at the federal and state levels. This could lead to a contraction in stablecoin market liquidity, especially as the reserves of leading stablecoins like USDT and USDC are locked in U.S. Treasuries, reducing their circulation in the crypto market. Stablecoins are the core medium for crypto contract trading, and a decrease in liquidity could raise trading costs and impact the activity level of the contract market. Expectations for the expansion of stablecoin market value.
The U.S. Treasury predicts that by 2028, the global stablecoin market value will reach $2 trillion, with $1.6 trillion flowing into the U.S. Treasury bond market. If the scale of stablecoins expands, the stability of their reserve assets may be enhanced, but in the long run, excessive reliance on U.S. Treasury bonds may weaken the risk resistance capability of stablecoins, indirectly affecting the volatility of the contract market.
2. Tax Policy and Market Sentiment: The Absence of the Crypto Tax Amendment
Although Senator Cynthia Lummis proposed an amendment to exempt small crypto transactions from taxes and eliminate double taxation on staking and mining, it was ultimately not included in the bill. This result has raised concerns in the market about an increased tax burden on crypto assets, which may lead to investors selling off risk assets (including contract positions), intensifying BTC and ETH price fluctuations in the short term. Demand for safe-haven assets and inflation hedging.
After the bill is passed, the expected increase in the U.S. fiscal deficit (an estimated increase of $3.3 trillion in the deficit from 2025 to 2034), coupled with inflationary pressures caused by tariff policies, may drive funds into safe-haven assets like Bitcoin. ETH may secure a place in institutional asset allocation due to the advantages of its smart contract ecosystem (such as DeFi and NFTs) and demand for on-chain applications.
3. Strengthening the Regulatory Framework and Market Structure for Stablecoin Regulation
The "GENIUS Act" mandates that stablecoins are tied to U.S. Treasury bonds, which may accelerate industry centralization (Tether and Circle already hold over 70% market share), weakening the competitive advantage of decentralized finance (DeFi). In the contract market, the dominant position of centralized exchanges (CEX) may be further solidified, while the liquidity of decentralized exchanges (DEX) may be constrained. Cross-border payments and the dollar hegemony.
The bill establishes a closed loop of "USD → stablecoin → US Treasury bond repatriation," reinforcing the dominant position of the USD in the on-chain payment system. This may suppress the cross-border flow of non-USD stablecoins and Crypto Assets, affecting the application prospects of tokens like ETH that support multi-chain ecosystems in international settlements. 4. Market response and short-term volatility price fluctuations and liquidation risks.
After the bill was passed, the crypto market saw over 100,000 people liquidated, with BTC and ETH experiencing short-term declines (for example, Bitcoin dropped 1.5% within 24 hours, and Ethereum fell 3%). The leverage positions in the futures market were concentrated for liquidation due to policy uncertainty, highlighting the fragility of market sentiment.
Institutional Funds and Long-term Expectations
Despite short-term pressure, some institutions remain optimistic about the long-term potential of Crypto Assets. For example, institutions like Grayscale continue to increase their holdings of BTC, while ETH may attract institutional funding attention due to advancements in smart contract upgrades (such as Pectra) and AI applications (such as Worldcoin).